By George Shaw
Summary
The headline news was that our zip code (27587) recorded its 10,000th case on October 18 and that Rolesville (27571) reported its second death from the virus during the last week. However, the COVID-19 situation in our state continued to improve steadily in the last month.
This past week’s figures for Wake County and our area remain ten to twenty times the lowest levels of new cases in 2021 which were recorded from late June to early July. The figures for reported new deaths from COVID-19 continue to decline both at the state and local levels.
The most recent forecast from the University of Washington for the virus in North Carolina predicts that deaths will bottom out in late November but begin to slowly rise through the remainder of 2021.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states. All of the key metrics improved last week but remain well above the lows for 2021 set in the early summer.
The number of tests declined 17% in the last seven days, compared to a 21% reduction the prior week. The 280,000 tests during the week ending today were the lowest level in 11 weeks but were 175% higher than the 2021 low of the seven days ending July 7.
New cases declined 22% in the last week; they were reduced 21% the prior week. The 17,860 new cases during the last seven days were the lowest level since late July. Yet, this week’s figures remain eight times higher than the 2021 weekly low set in late June.
Hospitalizations decreased by 19% during the last week to 1810, the lowest level since August 6. They were, however, more than four times higher than the 2021 low of 374 set on July 3.
Deaths were down 10% to 310, the lowest level since the week of August 18. However, this is significantly higher than the 33 deaths during the week of June 30, the lowest total for this year.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
New hospitalizations decreased 19% in the last week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 28% of hospitalized patients in the Tar Heel State and the Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units.
No new outbreaks of COVID-19 were reported during the last week.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) was updated on October 15. The total number of deaths in our state is currently 17.330. IMHE expects this number to increase to 20,164 by the end of December. This is a reduction of about 150 deaths from their prior forecast from September 29. Deaths are forecasted to decline through November 25 and slowly rise again as colder weather arrives and people are indoors for a greater portion of the day. This is a slip of two days from the previous outlook.
