{"id":16799,"date":"2021-05-26T16:43:05","date_gmt":"2021-05-26T20:43:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/?p=16799"},"modified":"2021-05-26T16:43:05","modified_gmt":"2021-05-26T20:43:05","slug":"employment-rose-only-slightly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/","title":{"rendered":"Employment rose only slightly"},"content":{"rendered":"

By George Shaw<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n

Although employment in Wake County increased modestly in March, the unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.7% in February to 3.9% in March as the total labor force remained largely unchanged.\u00a0Although the county’s unemployment rate for April has not been released, it is likely to remain around 4% as employment rose only modestly.\u00a0A broader measure of unemployment which includes part-time and discouraged workers remains about 8%.<\/p>\n

Job categories paying above average have almost completely recovered from the economic dislocations of the last year.\u00a0However, the lowest paying category (Leisure & Hospitality) remains more than 20% below the expected number of jobs.\u00a0Our area is one of 13 high growth hubs nationally.\u00a0Its recovery in terms of employment trails only San Antonio, Tampa and Charlotte over the last twelve months.<\/p>\n

Overall\u00a0Unemployment<\/strong><\/p>\n

The three main sources of data on employment tracked by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics are currently giving conflicting signals.\u00a0This conflict probably understates the recovery in employment.\u00a0The most frequently cited rate is the unemployment rate.\u00a0Although it has fallen dramatically from its peak last April at the national level, it inched up from 6.0% to 6.1% in April while the increase in employment was only 266,000.\u00a0 Meanwhile, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed an all-time record of 8.1 million available positions in the same month.<\/p>\n

The small increase in employment was about 75% less than the roughly 1 million additions to the labor force predicted by economists for April.\u00a0The data reported by BLS is seasonally adjusted.\u00a0This means that the number of construction jobs tend to increase when spring comes.\u00a0And jobs for sales associates tend to peak in the fall to anticipate the holiday rush and then fall sharply after Christmas.<\/p>\n

The unadjusted data for employment showed an increase of 1 million workers last month.\u00a0 \u00a0It is likely that historical patterns of monthly employment have changed with COVID-19 but the government’s way of adjusting the data has not been adjusted.\u00a0Therefore, the number of additional jobs in April was probably significantly higher at the national level than the headline reports indicated.\u00a0 The corresponding data for states and metropolitan areas is not adjusted seasonally.<\/p>\n

As a result, the methodology for estimating the number of current jobs has been changed for this report.\u00a0It will now measure the actual number of jobs against the pre-COVID workforce adjusted for both population and labor force growth.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0unemployment\u00a0rate in North Carolina was 3.6% in February and peaked at 12.9% in April 2020.\u00a0It was 5.7% in March and slid to 5.0% in April.\u00a0This is significantly lower than the national rate which inched up from 6.0% in March to 6.1% in April.<\/p>\n

Employment in our state grew by a modest 4,500 while\u00a0unemployment\u00a0decreased by 8,100. Employment has rebounded more than 700,000 since April 2000 but the figure remains 160,000 lower than before COVID-19 impacted our state.\u00a0Unemployment\u00a0was 251,000 last month vs.183,000 in February 2020.<\/p>\n

The percentage of the population participating in the labor force was 59.4% in April compared to 61.3% in February 2020.\u00a0This means that the labor force is 92,000 smaller in April than it was 14 months previously despite an increasing population.\u00a0Adding this figure to the official number for unemployment, the total unemployed in our state is about 350,000.<\/p>\n

The trend for Wake County is similar to those of North Carolina.\u00a0February 2020’s\u00a0unemployment\u00a0rate for our state was 3.2% and it rose to 12.2% by May 2020.\u00a0The rate for this March was 3.9% in March, down from 4.7% the previous month.<\/p>\n

Unemployment in the Raleigh\u00a0area was 22,000 in February 2020 and spiked at 83,600 in May. It was 34,300 this past February but declined to 28,100 in March 2021.\u00a0In addition, approximately 22,000 residents of our county have left the labor force compared to the year before.<\/p>\n

Unemployment\u00a0by Category<\/strong><\/p>\n

Which categories of employment are growing and which are not?<\/p>\n

Total employment in Wake County declined 5.8% during the year to April 2021.\u00a0 However, higher wage categories are only down 2.5%, led by Professional & Business Services.\u00a0Segments\u00a0paying lower than average wages were reduced by 7.4%.\u00a0 The lowest paying category, Leisure and Hospitality, dropped 23.4% compared to April 2020.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Raleigh’s Rank (of 13)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Monthly Change (Mar-Apr)<\/em><\/td>\nNational<\/td>\nGrowth Hubs<\/td>\nRaleigh\/Cary<\/td>\nFeb-Mar<\/td>\nMar-Apr<\/td>\nChange<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Non-Farm Employment<\/td>\n0.2%<\/td>\n0.7%<\/td>\n0.4%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Private Employment<\/td>\n0.2%<\/td>\n0.7%<\/td>\n0.3%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Higher Wage Segments<\/td>\n-0.1%<\/td>\n0.0%<\/td>\n0.5%<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lower Wage Segments<\/td>\n0.6%<\/td>\n1.3%<\/td>\n0.0%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n-8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Leisure & Hospitality<\/td>\n2.4%<\/td>\n4.3%<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Yearly Change (April)<\/em><\/td>\nNational<\/td>\nGrowth Hubs<\/td>\nRaleigh\/Cary<\/td>\nFeb-Mar<\/td>\nMar-Apr<\/td>\nChange<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Non-Farm Employment<\/td>\n-6.9%<\/td>\n-8.6%<\/td>\n-5.8%<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Private Employment<\/td>\n-7.1%<\/td>\n-9.1%<\/td>\n-6.0%<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Higher Wage Segments<\/td>\n-5.8%<\/td>\n-4.4%<\/td>\n-2.5%<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lower Wage Segments<\/td>\n-8.8%<\/td>\n-10.1%<\/td>\n-7.4%<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Leisure & Hospitality<\/td>\n-18.4%<\/td>\n-27.7%<\/td>\n-23.4%<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
*Higher Wage – Leisure\/ Hospitality<\/td>\n-12.6%<\/td>\n-23.2%<\/td>\n-20.9%<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Notes:<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
o\u00a0Higher Wage Segments\u00a0– Mining, Manufacturing, Information, Finance<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 and Professional & Business Services<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
o\u00a0Lower Wage Segments\u00a0– Trade, Transport & Utilities, Leisure & Hospitality & Other Services<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

How Does Raleigh Compare to Other High Growth Hubs?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Raleigh has been grouped by McKinsey as a high performance hub with a dozen other mid-size metro areas.\u00a0Raleigh’s performance in the last month was above average for higher paying segments.\u00a0The lack of growth in lower paying segments was the worst performing of the 13 high growth hubs.<\/p>\n

Raleigh is among the top performers among the 13 hubs on a year-to-year basis through April.\u00a0Although Leisure and Hospitality employment is nearly\u00a023% lower than in March 2020, that is significantly better than the average of a\u00a028% decline for the 13 hubs.\u00a0A reduction in the number of jobs in Trade, Transportation and Utilities counterbalanced an increase in Leisure and Hospitality.<\/p>\n

Alternative Measure of Unemployment<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are several measures for unemployment tracked by the government.\u00a0A metric adds workers who have given up looking for jobs as well as those working parttime to the official unemployment figures. A\u00a0disproportionate share of this part of the labor force is\u00a0women with\u00a0child care issues.\u00a0This broader basis adds 3-4% to the unemployment rate in times of economic growth but 5-7% following a recession.\u00a0 Our county’s unemployment rate on this expanded measure is currently roughly double the official rate.<\/p>\n

The poverty rate includes two groups and these approximate the number of residents who are considered food insecure.\u00a0The first group is those making less than the poverty line, which is those earning less than about $25,000 for a family of four in a year. The second group is those who earn between 100% and 200% of the poverty level.\u00a0The higher figure is roughly $50,000 annually for a family of four.<\/p>\n

Although there has been significant progress in reducing unemployment in our area, the number of current and previous working poor remains significant. This is largely because of a 23% reduction in the employment level for the lowest paying category – Leisure and Hospitality.\u00a0The poverty rate in the Wake Forest area was about 6% and approximately 18% when the working\u00a0poor are included.\u00a0 These rates probably declined somewhat before the pandemic hit in early 2020 but increased significantly in April 2020.\u00a0 Although there has been significant progress in reducing unemployment since April 2020, the current rate of food insecurity in Wake Forest is probably in the 20-25% range.<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Unemployment Rate, Raleigh & Cary<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Month<\/td>\nOfficial Rate<\/td>\nAlternative Rate<\/td>\nIncrease<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mar-20<\/td>\n3.5%<\/td>\n7.8%<\/td>\n4.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Apr-20<\/td>\n11.4%<\/td>\n20.7%<\/td>\n9.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
May-20<\/td>\n12.2%<\/td>\n19.5%<\/td>\n7.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jun-20<\/td>\n8.1%<\/td>\n15.3%<\/td>\n7.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jul-20<\/td>\n8.2%<\/td>\n13.3%<\/td>\n5.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aug-20<\/td>\n6.0%<\/td>\n11.2%<\/td>\n5.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sep-20<\/td>\n6.2%<\/td>\n10.1%<\/td>\n3.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oct-20<\/td>\n5.6%<\/td>\n9.5%<\/td>\n3.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nov-20<\/td>\n5.4%<\/td>\n8.8%<\/td>\n3.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dec-20<\/td>\n5.3%<\/td>\n8.6%<\/td>\n3.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jan-21<\/td>\n5.0%<\/td>\n9.0%<\/td>\n4.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Feb-21<\/td>\n4.7%<\/td>\n9.1%<\/td>\n4.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mar-21<\/td>\n3.9%<\/td>\n8.1%<\/td>\n4.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Note: the alternative rate adjusts the U-3 definition for unemployment by adding all persons<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 marginally attached to the labor force, plus those employed part time for economic reasons (U-6).<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 Sources:<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0 North Carolina Bureau of Labor Statistics,\u00a0https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/eag\/eag.nc.htm<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0 US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Employment Situation, Table A-10<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nTable A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization (bls.gov)<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By George Shaw Summary Although employment in Wake County increased modestly in March, the unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.7% in February to 3.9% in March as the total labor force remained largely unchanged.\u00a0Although the county’s unemployment rate for April has not been released, it is likely to remain around 4% as employment rose only […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nEmployment rose only slightly - The Wake Forest Gazette - Local News & Events in Wake Forest, NC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By George Shaw Summary Although employment in Wake County increased modestly in March, the unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.7% in February to 3.9% in\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Employment rose only slightly - The Wake Forest Gazette - Local News & Events in Wake Forest, NC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By George Shaw Summary Although employment in Wake County increased modestly in March, the unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.7% in February to 3.9% in\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Wake Forest Gazette - Local News & Events in Wake Forest, NC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-05-26T20:43:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Wake Forest Gazette\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Wake Forest Gazette\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Wake Forest Gazette\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/#\/schema\/person\/66e690fb475301b8d731cb08cdafa0fe\"},\"headline\":\"Employment rose only slightly\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-05-26T20:43:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-05-26T20:43:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/\"},\"wordCount\":1239,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Featured News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/\",\"name\":\"Employment rose only slightly - The Wake Forest Gazette - Local News & Events in Wake Forest, NC\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2021-05-26T20:43:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-05-26T20:43:05+00:00\",\"description\":\"By George Shaw Summary Although employment in Wake County increased modestly in March, the unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.7% in February to 3.9% in\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/employment-rose-only-slightly\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Employment rose only slightly\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wakeforestgazette.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Wake Forest Gazette - Local News & Events in Wake Forest, NC\",\"description\":\"Read the latest local news and find local events in Wake Forest, North Carolina. 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