What’s going on in Wake and 27587?

By George Shaw

The bottom line is that the pace of growth of virus cases and deaths has moderated at the state level. However, growth in new cases continues to increase significantly in Wake County and, especially in Zip Code 27587.

Summary

North Carolina has fared better than many states during the last several months.  The seven-day average for new cases across the United States was 71,000 on November 2.  This figure was 116,000 as of yesterday, a figure that will rise as four states including Florida have not yet reported data for yesterday.  This represents a 65% increase.  Average daily deaths have increased 35% nationally since November 17.  This percentage increase will grow as six states have not reported data for December 14.

The growth in metrics for our state have moderated in the last week.  Tests were down 4% and reported new cases were up 4% during the last seven days.  Deaths remained at 147 this past week.  However, hospitalizations increased 10% during the most recent period.

New cases in Wake County grew 15% last week and 69% in Zip Code 27587.  There were only two deaths in Wake County during the last seven days; one of these was in the zip code for Wake Forest.

Overseas trends continue to point to an uncertain recovery from the virus.  Much of Europe has seen significant increases in cases from the Delta variant and modest growth in the number of deaths in the last two months.  However, both metrics abated slightly last week.

Meanwhile, South Africa has seen a 70-fold increase in new cases as the Omicron variety takes hold.  However, there has not yet been appreciate growth in deaths.

North Carolina

North Carolina remains the 16th lowest number of cases and the 14th lowest for deaths.  The Tar Heel state slipped from the 30th highest rate of tests to the 31st in the last week.

Our state’s position as 14th lowest in terms of reported deaths is likely to improve over the next several weeks.  Wisconsin, Minnesota and Colorado all have mortality rates slightly lower than ours over the last 21 months.  However, each of them has recent rates that are significantly higher than ours.  North Carolina’s position is likely to improve to the 11th lowest by mid-January 2022.

Yet, this masks the magnitude of the deaths.  The 18,900 deaths in our state represent one for every 550 residents.  Mississippi has the highest mortality rate (1 in 288 residents); Vermont has the lowest (1 in 1,431 residents).  More detail on state-by-state trends will be covered in next week’s blog.

The number of tests in our state decreased 4% in the last seven days, compared to 40% growth the prior seven days.  The 298,000 tests during the week ending today are comparable to the level of late October.  However, they were only 62% of the total of 477,000 reached during the week ending September 15.

New cases increased 4% in the last week; they grew 65% the prior week.  This week’s figures was the highest total in nine weeks.

Hospitalizations increased to 1561 as of yesterday, on par with the level of October 22.  Deaths were 147 during the prior week, the same as the prior week.

Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville

New cases increased 15% in Wake County on top of a 53% increase during the prior week.  This is the highest level since the week of September 29.  Cases also grew 65% in zip code 27587 during the last seven days vs.18% during the prior week.  This week’s reported cases were the  largest number in 11 weeks.  Newly reported cases declined by four in 27571 and increased by nine in 27596.

Wake County had only two deaths in the last week.  A 63rd death in zip code 27587 was reported today.

The percentage of vaccinations grew slightly in the last week.  73% of the population in Wake County have received one shot; 70% have completed their vaccinations.  These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state.  62% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 58% have completed the requirement.  Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina declined to 81,000 during the last week.  This figure was down 28% from the prior seven days.

Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast

The number of new hospitalizations increased from 86 to 98 during the last week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 27% of hospitalized patients in Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units, a slight increase from 26% the prior week.

Cadence of Wake Forest has reported 13 positive cases including one for a staff member.  Ten students at the Goddard School in Wake Forest have also tested positive according to the website of the North Carolina Department of Heath & Human Services.

The University of Washington has not updated their forecast for the virus since November 17.

There is much concern about the Omicron variety.  South Africa is a possible place of origin.

Although the number of cases has increased sharply, the quantity of deaths has not risen significantly.  COVID cases in South Africa averaged less than 300 a day in mid-November.

The daily average was more than 12,000 cases a week ago.  It was 22,000 a day as of yesterday.  However, deaths from the virus have only increased from 13 to 22 daily a week ago.  The figure is 24 as of yesterday.

Meanwhile, Europe continues to be impacted by the Delta variant.  New cases have risen around 45% across the continent since October 15 and are now around 75% of the peak level in late April.  However, deaths on the Continent have only grown about 7% since mid-October.

Yet, reported new cases have declined 3% during the last week on a seven-day average.  And deaths have dropped 2% during the same period.

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