The State of North Carolina tracks four primary metrics to determine whether to relax guidelines on reopening the economy. All of them are trending upwards – more tests, more cases, higher positive testing ratio as well as greater number of hospitalizations. And Zip Code 27587 (Wake Forest) recorded 70 new cases, the largest amount for a week in at least a month.
This assessment will be adjusted slightly starting next week. There is sufficient historical data on the second type of test (antigen) to calculate averages with this factor over the prior 30 days.
North Carolina’s metrics remain good compared to the majority of states. However, it passed Maryland and California to rise to 27th among the 50 states for the number of cases. It remained 32nd for deaths from the virus on a per capita basis. It remained the 28th highest rate of tests.
The number of new cases increased from 11,240 last week to 12,172 this week. The weekly growth was about 8%, down from 22% the prior week. However, the number of deaths increased slightly from 161 last week to 163 for this seven-day period.
The 14-day moving average for all four metrics continues to increase. This average for tests sets records every day since October 7. Similarly, the percentage of positive cases have resumed growth, a level last seen on September 7. The number of hospitalized cases rose to 1,152 on October 13, the highest level since August 3.
| Change | Change | Data | ||||||||
| Criteria | 23-Sep | 30-Sep | 7-Oct | 14-Oct | 10/7-10/14 | 9/23-10/14 | Trend | |||
| Testing | 27084 | 26162 | 27668 | 30531 | 10.3% | 12.7% | Up | |||
| New Cases | 1245 | 1263 | 1460 | 1672 | 14.5% | 34.3% | Up Sharply | |||
| % Positive Cases | 4.60% | 4.83% | 5.28% | 5.48% | 3.8% | 19.1% | Up Sharply | |||
| Hospitalizations | 891 | 908 | 944 | 1028 | 8.9% | 15.4% | Up Sharply | |||
| Source: covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard | ||||||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||||
| o Data is a 14 day moving average | ||||||||||
| o Some of recent data is estimated | ||||||||||
| o Data includes Molecular Positive Cases only | ||||||||||
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Key metrics improved in Wake County. New cases declined from 823 last week to 755 this week and deaths decreased from 13 to only 4.
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The number of cases in our Zip Code 27587 rose by 70 in the last week, the highest seven-day increase in at least a month. No new deaths have been reported since September 19.
Zip Code 27571 (Rolesville) reported 4 new cases this past week up from 3 cases the prior seven days. Zip 27596 (Youngsville) rose by 12 cases, a dramatic decrease from the 31 cases reported for the previous week. Zip 27571 has reported no deaths; Zip 27596 continues to report a single fatality.
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