Weekly local COVID-19 status

By George Shaw

North Carolina introduced a stoplight tracking system yesterday for counties as COVID-19 has spread widely across the state.  Wake County is listed as Yellow, the lowest risk category.

The rate of growth in the State’s key metrics continues to increase. There have been more than 3,000 new cases in four of the last five days. Wake County had 1,594 new cases this week and Zip Code 27587 rose again to 110. Nevertheless, our county and zip code have been impacted much less significantly than North Carolina as a whole.

North Carolina’s Department of Human Services issued an advisory requesting residents to continue to wear masks, wash their hands regularly as well as to practice social distancing.

New County Stoplight Tracker

North Carolina announced yesterday an alert system for tracking COVID by county. This is in response to the steady increase in the number of cases.  he system flows down key metrics from the Center for Disease Control for the states, a report that is not publically released. The North Carolina system tracks the number of cases, the percent of positive tests as well as metrics for hospitalization. As it will only be updated monthly, this report will track Wake County indicators on a weekly basis in the future.

The immediate purpose of the system is to better inform governments and populations of the current status of the virus on a local basis. This will be used as part of the campaign to encourage wearing face masks, socially distance and to wash hands especially as we head into the holiday season. The second reason for the system is to give information to local decision makers to adjust reopening strategies based on local conditions.  The lockdowns of the spring were blunt instruments at the state level.

Key COVID-19 Data

Despite the increase in most metrics, North Carolina’s metrics remain good compared to the majority of states.  It moved from 30th to 34th among the 50 states for the number of cases on a per capita basis. It declined from 32nd for deaths from the virus to 33rd. It also declined from the 29th to the 30th highest rate of tests.

The number of new cases increased from 17,559 last week to 20,301 this week. The weekly growth was 14%, the third consecutive week of double-digit growth. The number of deaths rose slightly from 191 to 200 for this seven-day period.

The 14-day moving average for all metrics continues to increase, especially for the percentage of positive cases.  

Key metrics were mixed in Wake County. New cases increased from 1,424 last week to 1,594 this week; there were only four reported new deaths in the county during the last week.

The number of cases in our Zip Code 27587 rose from 95 in the preceding seven-day period to 110 in the last week. An additional death was reported in the last week.

Zip Code 27571 (Rolesville) reported 11 new cases this past week, down from 6 the previous week. Zip 27596 (Youngsville) rose by 25 cases, down from 36 cases reported for the previous week. Zip 27571 has reported no deaths; Zip 27596 continues to report a single fatality.

Federal Guidelines

The federal Coronavirus Task Force has developed stoplight charts for the states on three metrics which have not been officially published but the data is available. North Carolina is currently rated “red” for the number of new cases since the week of September 30. However, the number of deaths is no longer above the guideline. Both Wake County and Zip 27587 rated red for the number of new cases this week. Areas exceeding the federal guidelines are shown red.

Of the 48 states, 47 and the District of Columbia are now in the red zone for the number of new cases. North Carolina, Wake County as well as our zip code have all had deaths below the federal threshold.

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