By George Shaw
Summary
North Carolina continues to fare better than many states. The seven day average for new cases across the United States was 71,000 on November 2. This figure was 122,000 a week ago and it is now 155,000 reported cases. Average daily deaths have increased 41% nationally since November 29. This percentage increase will grow as several states have not reported data for up to seven days.
The growth in metrics for our state have moderated in the last week. Tests increased 3% and reported new cases were up 19% during the last seven days. Deaths accelerated to 162 this past week, an 11% increase. In addition, hospitalizations increased 7% during the most recent period.
New cases in Wake County grew 32% and declined 16% in Zip Codes 27587 last week. There were only three deaths in Wake County during the last seven days. None of these were recorded in our three zip codes. Outbreaks have been reported at three area facilities. Cadence in Wake Forest increased the known number of cases. Heritage High School joined the Goddard School with outbreaks.
Overseas trends continue to point to an uncertain recovery from the virus. Much of Europe is experiencing significant numbers from both Delta and an increasing spread of the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, new cases in South Africa peaked several days ago. Deaths lag the reporting of new cases – these figures continued to increase. This is an early but promising sign for the Omicron variant which has now become the primary type of COVID-19 in the United States.
North Carolina
Despite a recent increase in cases in our state, North Carolina improved from the 16th lowest number of cases to the 14th best during the last week. It also moved up from the 14th lowest mortality rate to 12th in the last week. The Tar Heel state moved from the 31st highest rate of tests to the 30th in the last week.
Yet, this masks the magnitude of the deaths. The 19,233 deaths in our state represent one for every 545 residents. Mississippi has the highest mortality rate (1 in 286 residents); Vermont continues to have the lowest rate (1 in 1,372 residents).
The number of tests in our state increased 2.6% in the last seven days, roughly on par with the level from the prior two weeks. The 317,000 tests during the week ending today are comparable to the level of mid-October. However, they were only 66% of the total of 477,000 reached during the week ending September 15.
New cases increased 19% to 26,459 in the last week; they grew 4% the prior week. This week’s figures were the highest total in eleven weeks.
Hospitalizations increased to 1,680 as of yesterday, a 7% growth over the prior week . Deaths were 163 during the prior week, the highest level in six weeks.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
New cases increased 32% to 3,030 in Wake County on top of a 15% increase during the prior week. This is the highest level since the week of September 15. Cases dropped 15% to 215 in zip code 27587 during the last seven days vs. 18% during the prior week. Newly reported cases increased by four in 27571 and decreased by twelve in 27596.
Wake County had only three deaths in the last week. There have only been 45 deaths in our county in the last ten weeks. No deaths were reported in our three zip codes.
The percentage of vaccinations grew slightly in the last week. 74% of the population in Wake County have received one shot; 70% have completed their vaccinations. These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state. 62% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 58% have completed the requirement. Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina declined to 59,000 during the last week. This figure was down 27% from the prior seven days.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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The number of new hospitalizations increased from 98 to 115 during the last week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 27% of hospitalized patients in Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units.
Cadence of Wake Forest has reported 21 positive cases including three for staff members. This is an increase from 13 cases a week ago. Yesterday’s report also highlighted Heritage High School where four students and a faculty member tested positive. Ten students at the Goddard School in Wake Forest have also tested positive according to the website of the North Carolina Department of Health & Human Services.
The University of Washington has not updated their forecast for the virus since November 17. They are updating their forecasting model to show the impact of Omicron.
Omicron is rapidly displacing Delta as the dominant variant. South Africa is a possible place of origin. Although the number of cases has increased sharply, the quantity of deaths has not yet risen significantly. COVID cases in South Africa averaged less than 300 a day in mid-November. The daily average peaked at 23,000 as of December 17. This is the highest seven day average for the 21 months of the pandemic. This metric fell to 18,000 as of yesterday. Deaths from the virus have increased from 24 daily a week ago to 46 as of December 21. This compares with the record high of 575 for a week set on January 16, 2021.
We visited Poland for ten days this fall. There were about 1,600 new cases a day when we left Warsaw on October 10. This rose to 23,000 cases daily as of December 7, a figure that has dropped to around 18,000 as of yesterday. Poland averaged 25 deaths on a seven-day average as of October 10. This figure was 429 as of yesterday and it is still climbing.
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