George Shaw
Summary
The COVID-19 situation in our state is becoming mixed. Hospitalizations and deaths continue to decline rapidly. However, the number of new cases in the last week increased. This occurred at the state level and in Wake County as well as in several of our local zip codes including a 26% increase in the Wake Forest area.
Most of the key metrics at the state level remain well above the lows for 2021 set in the early summer. And the weekly total of vaccinations across North Carolina increased for the second week in a row.
The welcome decline in deaths is forecast to reverse itself in early December although the rate of increase is expected to be modest. In addition, the number of new virus cases nationally has increased nationally by 15% during the last three weeks. The areas with the most rapid increases tend to be near the Canadian border, not in the South and Southwest where they have been during the last several months. Meanwhile, the seven-day average for deaths nationally is at its lowest level in almost two months.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states for the proportionate number of deaths but are now close to the national average for other key metrics. It remains the 21st lowest number of cases per capita and the 14th lowest for deaths. The Tar Heel state also had the 28th highest rate of tests, down from 27th last week.
The number of tests declined 12% in the last seven days, compared to a 9% reduction the prior week. The 242,000 tests during the week ending today were the lowest level in 15 weeks but were 138% higher than the 2021 low of the seven days ending July 7.
New cases increased 2% in the last week; they were reduced 5% the prior week. This week’s figures remain six times higher than the 2021 weekly low set in late June.
Hospitalizations decreased by 5% during the last week to 1,049, after bottoming out late Sunday. They were, however, 2.8 times higher than the 2021 low of 374 set on July 3.
Deaths were down another 21% to 143, the lowest level since the week of August 11. However, this is four times higher than the 33 deaths during the week of June 30, the lowest total for this year.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
New cases increased 11% in Wake County and 26% in zip code 27587 during the last seven days, reversing steady declines in recent weeks. Newly reported cases rose by five in 27571 and declined by four in 27596. Wake County’s number of new cases was roughly ten times higher than the 2021 low count set in late June. 27587’s figure was approximately 23 times this year’s high from just before the 4th of July weekend.
Wake County had five deaths in the last week, the same number as the previous week. There were no new deaths in our three zip codes during the past seven days.
The percentage of vaccinations edged up slightly in the last week. 71% of the population in Wake County has received one shot; 67% have completed their vaccinations. These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state. 60% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 56% have completed the requirement. Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina rose by 36% during the last seven days, the second consecutive weekly increase.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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The number of new hospitalizations was down 25% in the last week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 28% of hospitalized patients in Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units, a slight reduction from 29% the prior week.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has not been updated since November 3. The number of deaths is forecast to rise slowly throughout the winter.
However, the number of reported new cases nationally has increased by 15% in the last 21 days. Most of the growth nationally has been in the states near the Canadian border. Several states that had among the lowest rates of virus death have had dramatic increases. For example, Minnesota’s daily average for the number of new cases has doubled since October 28.
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