NC cases and deaths doubled due to Omicron

By George Shaw

Summary

There have been dramatic changes in the picture for the virus in the two weeks since this newspaper was last published.  The headlines are full of stories of rapidly increasing numbers of cases and resurging hospitalizations.  However, the current snapshot and the forecast for the next four months are cautiously optimistic.

Omicron now comprises 95% of all cases in the United States.  However, the number of severe cases has been relatively modest; the percentage of hospitalizations is significantly lower than in previous variants of COVID-19.  A seven-fold increase in the number of cases is filling up hospitals rapidly but the percentage of patients requiring treatment in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) has plummeted in our area in the last several weeks.

New cases nationally are running about twice previous highs and average about 500,000 over the last seven days.  Those figures are likely to increase for another several weeks, perhaps doubling or tripling again.  Deaths at the national level have not receded as Omicron has leapfrogged the Delta variant but they have not increased either.

North Carolina continues to fare better than many states, ranking 13th for the number of cases as well as 12th for deaths.  Yet, this positive relative rating masks enormous increases.  Cases more than doubled in the last week while deaths nearly doubled during the last seven days.

The story is similar in Wake County as well as our local zip codes.  And the number of new cases in our area is growing significantly faster than across the state.  Wake Forest’s zip code has had 13,881 cases of the virus, the third highest total of any zip code in the Tar Heel State.  However, there have been no new deaths reported in the county since December 28.  And there have been no new outbreaks in area schools or congregate living facilities in the last week.

The University of Washington updated its forecast for the virus to include the impact of Omicron.  Fatalities at the national level are expected to increase by around 16% through April 1.  North Carolina’s deaths are forecast to increase approximately 23%.

Meanwhile, nations such as South Africa that were hit by Omicron earlier than the United States have seen a 65% reduction in average cases while experiencing only a modest increase in the number of deaths.

United States

New cases on a seven-day average were 148,000 as of December 20.  They reached 548,000 as of yesterday.  Four states have not yet reported their figures, an increase of 286%.

Omicron is now the dominant variant for the virus.  The Center for Disease Control reported yesterday that the Omicron variant is 95% of all COVID cases as of January 1.  It is 97.4% in the Southeast.  The corresponding figures for December 18 were 22% and 36%, respectively.

Omicron cases have generally been less severe although hospitalizations are increasing rapidly.  Deaths lag new infections by about three weeks so mortality rates still largely reflect the Delta variant.

Deaths have declined slightly in the last five weeks.  Southern states have generally had the lowest mortality rates since December 1.  The best performers have been Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Alabama and New Jersey.  However, the latter two states have seen an upturn in deaths in the last few days and Florida’s new cases have increased sharply.  Michigan, Kentucky, Arizona, New Hampshire and Ohio have had the highest mortality rates during that time period

North Carolina

Despite a recent increase in cases in our state, North Carolina improved from the 14th lowest number of cases to the 13th best during the last week.  It also moved up from the 14th lowest mortality rate to 12th in the last two weeks.  The Tar Heel state moved from the 31th highest rate of tests to the 30th in the last week.

Yet, this masks the magnitude of the deaths.  The 19,542 deaths in our state represent one for every 537 residents.  Mississippi has the highest mortality rate (1 in 284 residents); Vermont continues to have the lowest rate (1 in 1,300 residents).

The number of tests in our state increased 23.5% in the last seven days to 487,000.  This is slightly higher than the previous record of 478,000 for the week ending September 15.

New cases increased from 41,500 last week to 114,700 during the current period, an increase of 176%.  The updated figure is nearly twice the previous record from the week of January 6, 2021.

Hospitalizations reached 3,099 yesterday, an increase of 46% in the last week.  Yet, this figure is significantly lower than the peak of 3,911 hospitalizations during the week of January 18 or 3,780 for the period ending September 18.

Deaths increased by 203 last week, nearly double the 106 during the prior seven days.  Nevertheless, this amount is less than half of the record of 489 set for the seven days ending February 3 as well as well below the total of 256 for the week ending November 3.

Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville

New cases increased 174% to 20,301 in Wake County.   The pattern was similar for our three zip codes.  Zip 27587 increased by 1,830 cases last week, an increase of 174% over the previous seven-day period.  Cases for both areas have increased about 15-fold since December 1.  27587 is the third highest number of cases in our state,  trailing 27610 (Southeast Raleigh) and 28269 (Southeast Charlotte).

Newly reported cases increased 165% in zip 27571 (Rolesville) as well as 272% in zip 27596 (Youngsville).  These figures are 10 and 8.5 times the corresponding ones for the week ending December 1.

Wake County had no deaths in the last week.  There have only been 49 deaths in our county in the last 12 weeks.  No deaths have been reported in our three zip codes since December 15.

The percentage of vaccinations grew slightly in the last two weeks.  74% of the population in Wake County has received one shot; 71% have completed their vaccinations.  These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state.  63% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 59% have completed the requirement.  Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina rose to 56,000 during the last week.  However, this figure is very low.   This is caused in part by the holiday season.

Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast

The number of new hospitalizations doubled to 212 during the last two week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 21% of hospitalized patients in the Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units.  The good news is that this is down significantly from the 38% of patients who were in ICUs six weeks ago.

No new outbreaks have been reported by the North Carolina Department of Health & Human Services.  Cadence of Wake Forest reported 21 positive cases including three for staff members.   Yesterday’s report also highlighted Heritage High School where four students and a faculty member tested positive.

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington updated their forecast on December 21.  It adds the impact of Omicron to its model.  The aggregate number of deaths is expected to increase from 835,000 as of today to 970,000 by April 1, an increase of 16%.  This represents a significant reduction from the growth in the last several months.

IHME forecasts that new cases will peak on January 28 at around 2.8 million a day at the national level and 98 thousand for North Carolina.  These figures represent all cases, not just the ones that are reported.

Deaths nationally will peak at approximately 2,080 a day on February 4.  This level is similar to the peak for Delta in September but around 60% of the highest level from last January.

Deaths in North Carolina are forecast to reach 64 a day on February 14 and then decline.  This figure is about 20% lower than the Delta peak in September as well as 35% lower than the maximum amount from last January.

The states with the highest increases in deaths over the next four months (33-50% since January 1) are generally in New England and the upper Midwest.  The ones with the lowest growth in deaths are in the deep South (less than 8%) as well as outliers such as Alaska and Hawaii.  North Carolina is forecast to have the 18th highest death rate, a 23% increase.

Omicron has rapidly displaced Delta as the dominant variant.  South Africa is a possible place of origin.   Although the number of cases has increased sharply, the quantity of deaths has not yet risen significantly.  COVID cases in South Africa averaged less than 300 a day in mid-November.  The daily average peaked at 23,000 as of December 17.  This is the highest seven-day average for the 21 months of the pandemic.  This metric fell to 8,000 as of yesterday.  Deaths from the virus have increased from 46 daily two week ago to 86 as of yesterday.  This compares with the record high of 575 for a week set on January 16, 2021.

In addition, the United Kingdom and Denmark have received high marks for their management of the Omicron wave.  New cases have increased six-fold in Great Britain in the last six weeks to an average of 180,000 a day.  Meanwhile, deaths have increased to only 130 on a seven-day average.  This is about 15% of the initial peak in mid-April 2020 as well as roughly 10% of the high in January 2021.

Denmark has seen a roughly 15-fold increase in new cases since mid-October.  Deaths remain about 30% of the peak reached a year ago.

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