By George Shaw
Summary
The COVID situation nationally as well as in our area continues to improve on most measures. The decline in hospitalizations has accelerated in the last week, particularly in North Carolina. However, deaths from the virus have reduced only modestly.
The number of new cases declined 43% in the last week while hospitalizations dropped 23%. The 157 deaths reported today was the third highest level during the pandemic. And, the number of deaths during the last week shattered the previous record set in mid-September by nearly 10%. It is likely that North Carolina will continue to record high levels of deaths from the virus for the next several weeks.
The story in Wake County and our three zip codes is similar to that for the state except for fatalities. New cases are down sharply as are hospitalizations. The number of deaths in the county remain modest and no new fatalities were reported in our immediate area in the last week.
North Carolina continues to rank 12th among the states for the Misery Index. This ratio combines the relative position of the states for the percentage of unemployed as well as the number of fatalities from the virus as a percentage of the population. Our unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% in December.
The states with the best ranking for the Misery Index generally have small populations and are rural. Republican-led states have overall ratings that are 95% of the average of the states, while Democrat-led states average 106%.
United States
New cases were around 90,000 a day before Thanksgiving, based on a seven-day average. They were around 450,000 daily a week ago. This figure has declined about 50% to around 230,000 this week.
In contrast, deaths averaged over 2,300 over the last week as of yesterday, down about 5% from a recent peak on January 29. Deaths across the states increased 9.6% during the first five weeks of the new year. Maine, Vermont, Ohio, Maryland, New Hampshire, and Indiana have all reported increases in deaths of 15-18% in the last month. North Carolina’s figure grew 9.8% over the same period.
North Carolina
North Carolina remained the 26th lowest number of cases among the states. It held its position with the 11th lowest mortality rate as well as the 28th highest rate of tests per capita.
The mortality rate for North Carolina as well as our local areas has historically been significantly less than other areas. The national rate is one death for every 362 residents as of yesterday. The corresponding rate in our state is 1:482. Mississippi has the highest mortality rate (1 in 262 residents); Hawaii now has the lowest rate (1 in 1,155 residents). Wake County’s rate of 1:1,132 is better than 49 of the states. Zip Code 27587’s rate is 1:1,063 which is a lower mortality rate than all states except for Hawaii and Vermont.
The number of tests in our state peaked at 713,000 for the week ending January 12. The figure for the last seven days is 344,000, a decrease of 23% in the last weeks.
New cases reached a high of 217,000 in the week ending January 19. The amount for the week ending today is 68,000, a decline of 43% over two weeks. Yet, the most recent period remains five times the quantity recorded just before Thanksgiving.
The record daily figure for hospitalizations was 5,206 on January 26. This amount declined to 4,719 as on February 1 and then to 3,812 yesterday. This represents a decline of 19% in the last week.
There were 578 deaths last week, eclipsing the previous record of 536 from the week ending September 15. And 157 new deaths were reported today. This is the third highest figure for a single day, surpassed only by 169 deaths on February 3, 2021 and 159 on September 29, 2021.
Hospitalizations have fallen 27% over the last two weeks. There has generally been roughly a two-week delay between changes in hospitalizations and deaths.
Deaths have risen steadily from 100 during the week ending December 1, a period of ten weeks. It is likely that we are near the peak for deaths from the virus but they may remain at an elevated level for another month. Deaths from the virus plateaued around 500 for the Delta variant for five weeks in September and early October. They also remained relatively constant for eight weeks from mid-December 2020 to early February 2021. On the other hand, deaths then fell by 75% in a single week in mid-February 2021.
How long can we expect the number of deaths to remain very high? There will probably be several more weeks of significant fatalities from the virus before there are significant reductions.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
There were 8,000 new cases in Wake County during the last week, a level last witnessed in late December. This week’s figure is 35% of the average of the prior three weeks. The pattern was similar for our three zip codes. The Wake Forest zip code was 38% of the average of the prior three weeks, Zip 27571 was 41% and Zip 27596 was 33% of the average of the three previous seven day periods.
Zip Code 27587 has had 22,154 cases of COVID-19 during the last two years. This remains the second highest of any zip code in the state, trailing zip 27610 in Southeast Raleigh which has 23,806 cases. However, our zip code has had 15% more new cases than the leading zip code in the last three weeks.
Wake County reported 13 new deaths in the last week, ten of them today. Only Dare County in the Outer Banks has a lower mortality rate among North Carolina counties. There have been no additional deaths in our three zip codes over the last week.
The percentage of vaccinations remains virtually unchanged. 72% of the population in Wake County have completed their vaccinations, unchanged from the prior week. The vaccination rate is 61% for the State of North Carolina, up from 60% the prior week.
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The Capital Region is an area of five counties centered on Wake County used by the state to aggregate data on data for hospitals. The number of new hospitalizations peaked at 411 in our region on January 30. It was 292 yesterday, a decrease of 29%. However, the percentage of hospitalized patients in Intensive Care Units in our region rose to 22% as of yesterday from 17% a week ago.
The North Carolina Department of Health & Human Services listed yesterday two recent outbreaks in our area. The number of residents at Hillside who tested positive increased from 10 to 27 in the last week. The number at Heritage High School remained five. Brookdale was deleted from the current list.
Comparing North Carolina to Other States – Unemployment and COVID-19 Deaths
States used different strategies to combat the virus. Measures such as lockdowns and restrictions on businesses have had significant economic repercussions especially in terms of employment and unemployment. And states with lower rates of wearing masks and vaccinations tend to have higher rates of mortality.
How has North Carolina fared compared to the other 49 states in terms of employment and deaths from COVID? I have constructed an index to compare states by measuring their results as a percent of the national average. I call this the “Misery Index.”
North Carolina’s unemployment rate of 3.72% in December 2021 is 81% of the average of the states. Its mortality rate from the virus as of the end of last month was 2033 reported deaths per million population. That is 74% of the aggregate rate for all of the states. Our state’s combined rating is 77% of the national average. North Carolina currently ranks 12th among the states.
Which states have the best ratings?:
o Vermont – 44% of the national average. The Green Mountain State has an unemployment rate of 2.5% that is 56% of the national average. It also has a rate of deaths from the virus that is the second lowest in the nation (32% of the national average).
o Utah – 45% of the national average. The Beehive State unemployment rate of 2.0% trails only Nebraska’s; its virus mortality rate is the third lowest.
o Nebraska – 54% of the national average. The Cornhusker State has the lowest unemployment rate (1.7%) as well as the ninth lowest rate of deaths from the virus.
o New Hampshire – 58%. The Granite State has the 9th best rate of unemployment (2.6%) and 8th for death rate from the virus.
Which states have the least favorable ratings?
o New Jersey – 132% of the national average. The Garden State has the third highest unemployment rate and the second highest mortality rate from the virus.
o New York – 129%. The Empire State has the fourth highest unemployment rate and the sixth highest mortality rate.
o Nevada – 123%. The Silver State has the second highest unemployment rate and the 20th highest mortality rate.
o Michigan -120%. The Great Lakes State has 10th highest unemployment rate and 9th highest mortality rate
o Mississippi – 120%. The Magnolia State has an unemployment rate slightly less than the national average but has the highest mortality rate from the virus.
What is the overall picture across the political spectrum since the virus began its impact nearly two years ago? States led by unified Republican governments have tended to fare better on unemployment but worse on the relative level of virus deaths.
o States with Republican leadership – overall Misery Index is 95% of the national average. Their index for unemployment is 83% but their rating for virus deaths is 108% of the national averages.
o States with mixed political leadership – overall Misery Index is 98% with unemployment at 97% and virus deaths at 100% of the national average.
o States with Democratic leadership – overall Misery Index is 106% with unemployment at 123% and virus deaths at 90% of the national average.
And how has the data changed recently? The ratings have eroded for states with mixed political leadership for the unemployment rate. There has been a slight improvement for states with unified political leadership.
Meanwhile, the mortality rate from the virus dropped for Republican led states from 113% of the average six weeks ago to 108% as of yesterday. The rate for states with Democratic leadership has increased from 88% to 90%. And the ratio for states with mixed leadership has increased from 90% to 100%.
(Shaw has also provided an employment article which is farther down in the Gazette.)
