By George Shaw
Summary
Nearly all key indicators for COVID-19 dropped significantly last week at the state, county and local areas. Deaths declined for the first time at the state level in six weeks.
The most recent forecast from the University of Washington for the virus in North Carolina predicts that deaths will bottom out in mid-November but begin to slowly rise through the remainder of 2021.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states. The Tar Heel State improved its relative position for new cases – it moved up from the 22nd lowest rate to the 21st last week. It also rebounded from the 15th lowest for deaths on a per capita basis to 14th. It also remained the 29th best rate for tests.
All of the key metrics improved last week. The number of tests declined by 12% in the last seven days, compared to a 6% reduction the prior week. New cases declined 27% in the last week; they were reduced 14% the prior week. Hospitalizations decreased by 11% during the last week, an acceleration of the 6% reduction the prior week. And deaths were down 6% vs. growing 6% during the previous week.
How do North Carolina’s most recent numbers compare with the highest figures from last January and February? Tests for the last seven days are 86% in contrast to 93% the prior week. New cases dropped to 60% of the peak week in mid-January from 71% the week before. Hospitalizations are down to 77% of the previous high period ending January 13 from 85% during the last seven day period. And deaths reported in the last week are 97% of the peak week of February 10.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
The news closer to home is generally improved as cases continue to decline. However, deaths remain elevated for Wake County.
New cases declined by another 18% in Wake County and 16% in zip code 27587 from the prior week during the last seven days. They also increased 6% in zip code 27571 and declined 24% in zip 27596 in the last week.
Wake County had 23 deaths in the last week, up from 16 during the prior seven-day period. There were two new deaths in zip 27587 this week. The Rolesville zip code continues to report only a single death since the start of the pandemic roughly eighteen months ago.
69% of the population in Wake County has received one shot; 64% have completed their vaccinations. These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state. 57% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 53% have completed the requirement. Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina continued their decline since the week of August 23. Only 37,000 first doses were administered last week, the lowest seven-day total since December 2020.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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New hospitalizations decreased 6% in the last week, 59% in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 28% of hospitalized patients in the Tar Heel State continued to be in Intensive Care Units vs. 36% in the Capital Region. 82% of available ICU beds in our region were used last week, down from 84% during the previous seven-day period. 39% of ventilators in our region are in use, a reduction from 44% last week.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) was updated on September 23. The total number of deaths in our state is currently 16,285. IMHE expects this number to increase to nearly 20,300 by the end of December, a growth of 23% in the last three months of the year. Deaths are forecasted to decline through November 19 and slowly rise again as colder weather arrives and people are indoors for a greater portion of the day.
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