Employment rose only slightly

By George Shaw

Summary

Although employment in Wake County increased modestly in March, the unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.7% in February to 3.9% in March as the total labor force remained largely unchanged. Although the county’s unemployment rate for April has not been released, it is likely to remain around 4% as employment rose only modestly. A broader measure of unemployment which includes part-time and discouraged workers remains about 8%.

Job categories paying above average have almost completely recovered from the economic dislocations of the last year. However, the lowest paying category (Leisure & Hospitality) remains more than 20% below the expected number of jobs. Our area is one of 13 high growth hubs nationally. Its recovery in terms of employment trails only San Antonio, Tampa and Charlotte over the last twelve months.

Overall Unemployment

The three main sources of data on employment tracked by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics are currently giving conflicting signals. This conflict probably understates the recovery in employment. The most frequently cited rate is the unemployment rate. Although it has fallen dramatically from its peak last April at the national level, it inched up from 6.0% to 6.1% in April while the increase in employment was only 266,000.  Meanwhile, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed an all-time record of 8.1 million available positions in the same month.

The small increase in employment was about 75% less than the roughly 1 million additions to the labor force predicted by economists for April. The data reported by BLS is seasonally adjusted. This means that the number of construction jobs tend to increase when spring comes. And jobs for sales associates tend to peak in the fall to anticipate the holiday rush and then fall sharply after Christmas.

The unadjusted data for employment showed an increase of 1 million workers last month.   It is likely that historical patterns of monthly employment have changed with COVID-19 but the government’s way of adjusting the data has not been adjusted. Therefore, the number of additional jobs in April was probably significantly higher at the national level than the headline reports indicated.  The corresponding data for states and metropolitan areas is not adjusted seasonally.

As a result, the methodology for estimating the number of current jobs has been changed for this report. It will now measure the actual number of jobs against the pre-COVID workforce adjusted for both population and labor force growth.

The unemployment rate in North Carolina was 3.6% in February and peaked at 12.9% in April 2020. It was 5.7% in March and slid to 5.0% in April. This is significantly lower than the national rate which inched up from 6.0% in March to 6.1% in April.

Employment in our state grew by a modest 4,500 while unemployment decreased by 8,100. Employment has rebounded more than 700,000 since April 2000 but the figure remains 160,000 lower than before COVID-19 impacted our state. Unemployment was 251,000 last month vs.183,000 in February 2020.

The percentage of the population participating in the labor force was 59.4% in April compared to 61.3% in February 2020. This means that the labor force is 92,000 smaller in April than it was 14 months previously despite an increasing population. Adding this figure to the official number for unemployment, the total unemployed in our state is about 350,000.

The trend for Wake County is similar to those of North Carolina. February 2020’s unemployment rate for our state was 3.2% and it rose to 12.2% by May 2020. The rate for this March was 3.9% in March, down from 4.7% the previous month.

Unemployment in the Raleigh area was 22,000 in February 2020 and spiked at 83,600 in May. It was 34,300 this past February but declined to 28,100 in March 2021. In addition, approximately 22,000 residents of our county have left the labor force compared to the year before.

Unemployment by Category

Which categories of employment are growing and which are not?

Total employment in Wake County declined 5.8% during the year to April 2021.  However, higher wage categories are only down 2.5%, led by Professional & Business Services. Segments paying lower than average wages were reduced by 7.4%.  The lowest paying category, Leisure and Hospitality, dropped 23.4% compared to April 2020.

How Does Raleigh Compare to Other High Growth Hubs?

Raleigh has been grouped by McKinsey as a high performance hub with a dozen other mid-size metro areas. Raleigh’s performance in the last month was above average for higher paying segments. The lack of growth in lower paying segments was the worst performing of the 13 high growth hubs.

Raleigh is among the top performers among the 13 hubs on a year-to-year basis through April. Although Leisure and Hospitality employment is nearly 23% lower than in March 2020, that is significantly better than the average of a 28% decline for the 13 hubs. A reduction in the number of jobs in Trade, Transportation and Utilities counterbalanced an increase in Leisure and Hospitality.

Alternative Measure of Unemployment

There are several measures for unemployment tracked by the government. A metric adds workers who have given up looking for jobs as well as those working parttime to the official unemployment figures. A disproportionate share of this part of the labor force is women with child care issues. This broader basis adds 3-4% to the unemployment rate in times of economic growth but 5-7% following a recession.  Our county’s unemployment rate on this expanded measure is currently roughly double the official rate.

The poverty rate includes two groups and these approximate the number of residents who are considered food insecure. The first group is those making less than the poverty line, which is those earning less than about $25,000 for a family of four in a year. The second group is those who earn between 100% and 200% of the poverty level. The higher figure is roughly $50,000 annually for a family of four.

Although there has been significant progress in reducing unemployment in our area, the number of current and previous working poor remains significant. This is largely because of a 23% reduction in the employment level for the lowest paying category – Leisure and Hospitality. The poverty rate in the Wake Forest area was about 6% and approximately 18% when the working poor are included.  These rates probably declined somewhat before the pandemic hit in early 2020 but increased significantly in April 2020.  Although there has been significant progress in reducing unemployment since April 2020, the current rate of food insecurity in Wake Forest is probably in the 20-25% range.