By George Shaw
Summary
Most of the COVID indicators improved again last week at the state, county and local area. However, deaths continued to be stubbornly high, setting another seven-day record during the virus. Deaths tend to lag new cases by 17 to 21 days so it is possible that it may be several more weeks before we see a significant decline.
The most recent forecast from the University of Washington for the virus in North Carolina predicts that deaths will bottom out in mid-November but begin to slowly rise through the remainder of 2021.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states but its rankings are slipping in the last several weeks. The Tar Heel State continues to drop in the comparative rankings for new cases – it was the 21st lowest last week and is now 22nd. It also declined from the 14th lowest for deaths on a per capita basis to 15th as well as moving from the 28th to the 29th best rate of tests.
The number of tests declined by 6% in the last seven days, compared to 2% growth the prior week. New cases declined 14% in the last week; they were flat over the previous seven-day period. Hospitalizations decreased by 6% during the last week, comparable to the 5% reduction during the previous week. However, deaths grew 6% in the last week setting another seven-day record.
How do North Carolina’s most recent numbers compare with the highest figures from last January and February? Tests for the last seven days are 92% in contrast to 98% the prior week. New cases dropped to 71% of the peak week in mid-January from 82% the week before.. Hospitalizations are down to 85% of the previous high period ending January 13 from 92% during the last seven-day period. Deaths reported in the last week are 110% of the peak week of February 10.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
Meanwhile, the news closer to home is generally upbeat as cases continue to decline. However, deaths remain elevated including the first death in zip code 27596 (Youngsville) since mid-May.
New cases declined by 18% in Wake County, following a 13% drop the previous week.
Cases in zip code 27587 were down 31% from the prior week during the last seven days. They also declined 24% in zip code 27571 and 35% in zip 27596 in the last week. The data for all three zip codes was the lowest reported weekly totals since early August.
Wake County had 16 deaths in the last week, down from 23 during the prior seven day period. There were two new deaths in zip 27587 this week as well as the first new death in zip 27596 since May 13.
67% of the population in Wake County have received one shot; 64% have completed their vaccinations. These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state. 57% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 52% have completed the requirement. Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina which had nearly doubled from early July to the week of August 23 have subsequently declined by 33% during the last three weeks.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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Although new hospitalizations decreased 6% in the last week across North Carolina they were flat in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 27% of hospitalized patients in the Tar Heel State continued to be in Intensive Care Units vs. 32% in the Capital Region. 84% of available ICU beds and 44% of ventilators in our region are in use – these figures are down slight from the prior week.
Several locations in Wake Forest have reported virus outbreaks but the numbers are unchanged from last week. The Endeavor Charter School 1 and 2 have had a total of 19 cases among students. In addition, Hillside remains with two cases. The outbreak at Cadence has been deleted from the report.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) was updated on September 15. The period of the forecast was extended through the month of December. The total number of deaths in our state is currently 15,941. IMHE expects this number to increase to nearly 20,000 by the end of December, a growth of about 25% in the last 100 days of the year. Deaths are forecasted to decline through mid-November but slowly rise again as colder weather arrives and people are indoors for a greater portion of the day.
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