COVID update: Most trends are positive

By George Shaw

Most of the trends are positive for North Carolina, Wake County and our local area. The number of tests, cases and hospitalizations have reverted to levels from a month ago. However, the number of deaths in North Carolina exceeded 700 in the last week, a record. Although our state still trails the national average, vaccinations are accelerating with an increasing percentage of the population having two shots.

Key COVID-19 Data

Despite the increase in most metrics, North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most of the states. It moved from the 13th lowest rate of cases to the 14th among the 50 states for the number of cases and improved from the 12th to the 11th lowest for deaths on a per capita basis. It remained the 27th  highest in the rate of testing during the last week.

The trends are increasingly encouraging for tests, cases and hospitalizations. However, the numbers remain several times the levels in state and federal guidelines.

The numbers in our state continued to decline in the last week as we are further away from the holiday season. New tests are down 8% while the number of new cases is reduced 15%. The percentage of positive tests has declined from a peak in mid-January. Hospitalizations peaked in early January and have since decreased by around 20%.

The number of new cases during the last week dropped to the lowest level since late December. However, the number of deaths set a record of 715 last week, eclipsing the total of 669 recorded two weeks before.

The number of vaccinations nearly doubled in the week until yesterday in North Carolina to reach just under 700,000. This includes more than 87,000 second shots. Vaccinations in Wake County rose 90% in the last week to 57,000 including almost 11,000 second shots.

The data for Wake County and our zip code 27587 improved last week. There was a slight uptick in cases in Zip Codes 27571 (Rolesville) and 27596 (Youngsville). The Rolesville area now has a higher rate of infection than other local towns or Wake County.  No new deaths have been reported locally since January 8.

Federal Guidelines

The federal Coronavirus Task Force has developed stoplight charts for the states on three metrics which have not been officially published but the data is available.  North Carolina has rated “red” for all categories for the last two months, reaching more than four times the guideline for new cases and three times for deaths.  Areas exceeding the federal guidelines are shown red.

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