George Shaw
Summary
The COVID-19 situation in our state remains mixed.
New cases grew for the second consecutive week at the state level while hospitalizations and deaths rebounded. New cases also grew in Wake County and two of the three local zip codes. However, deaths were down to three across Wake County during the last seven days. An additional death was reported in zip code 27596.
Deaths in North Carolina are predicted to increase through mid-December and then decline through mid-January. Modest growth in fatalities is forecast to resume through the end of February.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states. It improved from the 21st lowest number of cases per capita to the 19th in the last week. It remained the 14th lowest for deaths as well as the 28th highest rate of tests.
The number of tests increased by 0.1% in the last seven days, compared to a 7% reduction the prior week.
New cases and deaths increased 13% in the last week. This represents the second week in a row for increases in new cases as well as a turnaround from the 30% reduction in deaths the prior week.
Hospitalizations rose to 1,113, a level last reached on November 4.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
New cases increased 19% in Wake County, up from an 11% increase the prior week. New cases were flat in zip code 27587 during the last seven days. Newly reported cases rose modestly in zip code 27571 for the third consecutive week and also increased in zip code 27596.
However, deaths in Wake County declined to three during the last week, a reduction from five for the prior seven days. An eighth death was recorded for zip code 27596. The death toll in zip code 27587 remains at 62. No new cases have been reported since November 4. Only two deaths have been listed for zip code 27571 since March 2020.
The percentage of vaccinations edged up slightly in the last week. 72% of the population in Wake County has received one shot; 67% have completed their vaccinations. These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state. 61% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 57% have completed the requirement. Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina declined by 40% during the last seven days, reversing increases during the two prior weeks.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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The number of new hospitalizations increased from 68 to 83 during the last seven days for the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 25% of hospitalized patients in Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units, a reduction from 28% the prior week.
North Carolina’s report on outbreaks of the virus released yesterday lists an outbreak at the Goddard School in Wake Forest with ten students testing positive. The list also indicates that nine students and one faculty member at Thales Academy in Wake Forest have tested positive.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) was updated on November 17. The outlook is more optimistic than recent estimates.
The total number of deaths in our state is currently 18,676. IMHE expects this number to increase to 20,103 by the end of February, a decline of 154 from their previous forecast from November 3.
Recent forecasts expected deaths to resume growth in early December and continue to rise slowly through March 1. The forecast from a week ago indicates that deaths have already begun to increase but will only grow through mid-December. Deaths will again decline through mid-January and increase modestly through the end of February. The daily number of deaths at that time will remain around 16, well below the most recent seven day average of 23.
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