By George Shaw
Summary
The COVID-19 situation in our state continued to improve steadily in the last month with double digit reductions in the number of new cases and hospitalizations across North Carolina as well as in the Capital Region of five counties. Nevertheless, the decline in deaths from the virus in North Carolina is lagging reductions in other metrics. This past week’s figures for Wake County and our area remain ten to twenty times the lowest levels of new cases in 2021 which were recorded from late June to early July.
The most recent forecast from the University of Washington for the virus in North Carolina predicts that deaths will bottom out on December 1 but begin to slowly rise through January 2022.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states. Please see the write-up in a different article comparing the Tar Heel state with the others in terms of both the virus as well as unemployment.
All of the key metrics improved last week but remain well above the lows for 2021 set in the early summer.
The number of tests declined 9% in the last seven days, compared to a 12% reduction the prior week. The 274,000 tests during the week ending today were the lowest level in 12 weeks but were 169% higher than the 2021 low of the seven days ending July 7.
New cases declined 17% in the last week; they were reduced 21% the prior week. The 14,857 new cases during the last seven days were the lowest level since late July. Yet, this week’s figures remain seven times higher than the 2021 weekly low set in late June.
Hospitalizations decreased by 23% during the last week to 1406, the lowest level since August 1, 2020. They were, however, 3.7 times higher than the 2021 low of 374 set on July 3.
Deaths were down 5% to 295, the lowest level since the week of August 18. However, this is significantly higher than the 33 deaths during the week of June 30, the lowest total for this year.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
New cases dropped 18% in Wake County, 21% in zip code 27587 and 41% in zip code 27571 during the last seven days. They declined 21% in zip code 27596 during the same period. This represents the lowest weekly total since late July or early August. However, Wake County’s number of new cases was roughly 13 times higher than the 2021 low count set in late June; 27587’s figure was approximately 20 times this year’s high from just before the 4th of July weekend.
Wake County had five deaths in the last week, the same amount as the previous week. There were no new deaths in our three area zip codes.
The percentages of vaccinations have not changed in the last week. 69% of the population in Wake County have received one shot; 66% have completed their vaccinations. These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state. 59% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 55% have completed the requirement. Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina continued their decline since the week of August 23.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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New hospitalizations decreased 20% in the last week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 29% of hospitalized patients in the Tar Heel State and the Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units.
No new outbreaks of COVID-19 were reported during the last week.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) was updated on October 20 and was extended from January through February. The total number of deaths in our state is currently around 17,900 IMHE expects this number to increase to 20,251 by the end of January. This is a reduction of about 1,000 deaths through January from their prior forecast. Deaths are forecasted to decline through December 1 and slowly rise again as colder weather arrives and people are indoors for a greater portion of the day. This is a slip of six days from the previous outlook.
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