By George Shaw
Summary
Results continue to improve in North Carolina with acceleration of the declines in new cases, deaths and hospitalizations. However, the forecast through August 1 for new cases and deaths continues to become more pessimistic. There continues to be a strong probability of another round of relaxation of restrictions by June 1. Removal of remaining constraints may be delayed until just before the 4th of July weekend.
Key COVID-19 Data
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most of the states. It remained the14th lowest among the 50 states for the number of cases during the last week as well as the 13th lowest state in deaths per person. It also kept its ranking as 26th in terms of the most number of tests.
IHME (see forecast section below) has estimated the number of deaths for most countries as well as all 50 states. The data currently presented captures deaths by reports from hospitals and other organizations. The number of deaths in the Tar Heel state through May 9 was 12,700.
The IHME assessment uses a different approach. They examine the total number of deaths and compare these figures to mortality statistics in an average year. IMHE then assesses causes of the extra deaths and derives how many of them were caused by COVID. North Carolina’s deaths through May 9 total nearly 28,000, more than twice the reported figure. Our state is one of only six where the revised figures were more than twice the previously reported data. The national figures rose from around 590,000 deaths to more than 900,000 through mid-May.
Data for the last seven days improved in our state against all of the key metrics. New tests in North Carolina are down 11% vs. 7% the prior week. The number of new cases are down 14% (vs. -9%) during the prior seven day period. The percentage of positive tests decreased slightly from 5.2% to 5.1% in the last weed. Hospitalizations reduced 10% during the last week versus 9% the prior week.
North Carolina’s County Alert System was last updated on April 29. No counties are currently rated red, 30 orange and 56 yellow. 14 counties are coded light yellow. Allegheny County on the Virginia border is not listed as green. This represents significant deterioration from the scores from April 15 when there were 20 orange and 30 light yellow listings.
How is Wake County doing compared to the other 99 counties? Our county’s ranking has improved slightly during the past two weeks. It currently ranks 24th in the number of new cases and 55th in percent of positive tests over a two-week period. Wake’s share of North Carolina’s cases has leveled off during the last ten days. Counties north and east of Wake remain a substantial risk of community spread (code orange).
3.9 million Tar Heels have received their first dose while 3.4 million have their second shots as of April 19. An additional 274 thousand have a vaccine requiring a single shot. The number of new shots decreased from 242,000 to 179,000 doses administered during the last full week (May 3). 39% residents of Wake County have received partial doses and 35% have completed their requirements.
Eight students at St. Catherine’s of Siena in Wake Forest have tested positive for COVID-19.
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New cases in Wake County increased 4% last week compared to a 32% decline for the prior seven day period. The number of new cases in Zip Codes 27587 declined 4% during the last week while those in 27571 were flat and 27596 increased 20%. The last reported fatality from the virus in our area was on March 26. Over the course of the pandemic, Zip Code 27571 has had proportionately more cases than North Carolina as a whole. However, deaths across our three areas are lower than either Wake County or North Carolina.
| North | Wake | Zip | Zip | Zip | ||
| Data as of 5/12/2021 | Carolina | County | 27587 | 27571 | 27596 | |
| Total Cases | 987431 | 87400 | 6628 | 749 | 1762 | |
| Total Deaths | 12830 | 721 | 48 | 1 | 5 | |
| Percent Deaths | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| Cases (last 7 days) | 9675 | 893 | 68 | 8 | 36 | |
| Increase over prior 7 days | -13.9% | 4.4% | -2.9% | 0.0% | 20.0% | |
| Deaths (last 7 days) | 109 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cases/100 Population | 9.41 | 7.99 | 8.91 | 10.14 | 9.45 | |
Federal Guidelines
The federal Coronavirus Task Force has developed stoplight charts for the states on three metrics. This is one of the indicators to help understand better when our state will continue to reopen. Areas exceeding the federal guidelines are shown red. Similar to indicators previously discussed, the numbers for new cases are moving in the wrong direction for North Carolina but improving for Wake County as well as our zip code.
| Federal Guidelines (data for last seven days) | ||||||
| North Carolina | 21-Apr | 28-Apr | 5-May | 12-May | vs. Guideline | Guideline |
| New Cases | 13447 | 13007 | 11232 | 9675 | 92% | 10500 |
| Positive Test Rate | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | ||
| Deaths | 155 | 139 | 102 | 109 | 52% | 210 |
| Wake County | ||||||
| New Cases | 1160 | 1253 | 855 | 893 | 82% | 1085 |
| Deaths | 11 | 7 | 2 | -1 | -5% | 21.7 |
| Zip 27587 | ||||||
| New Cases | 124 | 82 | 70 | 68 | 88% | 77 |
| Deaths | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.54 |
Outlook for the Future
The May 7 update to the IHME Model from the University of Washington is less positive about the number of new cases and deaths than the last one from April 27. The level for our state to be below the “red zone” for federal guidelines is about 10,500 new cases per week (1500 cases per day).
The forecast is slightly more pessimistic for new cases than the prior one. Our state is forecast to fall below the red zone on June 3 as compared to May 31 predicted the prior week. This model predicts this figure to drop to around 3,500 a week by July 2 compared to June 27 in the prior forecast. IHME forecasts that North Carolina will have less than 10 deaths per day by June 30 vs. June 10 in the prior report.
This slip reflects increasing concern over the impact of spread of variants of COVID-19. In addition, IHME estimates that mask use in North Carolina peaked on Valentine’s Day at 78%. The figure was 67% a week ago; it has decreased to about 65% now. This figure is forecast to drop to around 53% by July 1 (it was 54% a week ago) and 34% of that rate by August 1 as vaccinations continue to increase and restrictions ease.
Results continue to improve in North Carolina with acceleration of the declines in new cases, deaths and hospitalizations. However, the forecast through August 1 for new cases and deaths continues to become more pessimistic. There continues to be a strong probability of another round of relaxation of restrictions by June 1. Removal of remaining constraints may be delayed until just before the 4th of July weekend.
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