By George Shaw
The impact of COVID-19 continues to lessen as new cases, the percent of positive tests and hospitalizations all diminish from the spike during the holiday season. However, the number of deaths remains relatively high. Vaccinations are increasing but North Carolina is not one of the leaders in terms percent of the population vaccinated. Despite significant reduction in key metrics over the last six weeks, the state is unlikely to fall below the red zone of federal guidelines until April or May 2021. This means that further reopening in North Carolina is probably 30 to 60 days in the future.
Key COVID-19 Data
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most of the states. It remained the 15th lowest among the 50 states for the number of cases. It is now the 13th lowest state in deaths per capita – it had been 11th. It went from the 27th to the 28th highest in the rate of testing.
Although trends are increasingly encouraging for tests, cases and hospitalizations, the numbers remain significantly higher than the levels in state and federal guidelines. These and the state guidelines discussed below are inputs to decide whether North Carolina will further relax the current stay-at-home regulations.
New tests in North Carolina are down 12% while the number of new cases reduced 18% during the prior week. The percentage of positive tests has declined from a peak in mid-January to a level last achieved on November 26. Hospitalizations peaked on January 12 and have since decreased by 60%.
| 14 Day Moving Averages | Data | State | ||||||
| Criteria | 3-Feb | 10-Feb | 17-Feb | 24-Feb | Trend | Guideline | ||
| Testing | 57202 | 54102 | 49128 | 43303 | Down sharply | Level or down | ||
| New Cases | 5535 | 4641 | 3814 | 3138 | Down sharply | Level or down | ||
| % Positive Cases | 9.68% | 8.58% | 7.76% | 7.25% | Down but elevated | 5% or less | ||
| Hospitalizations | 3084 | 2593 | 2192 | 1813 | Down sharply | Level or down | ||
| Source: covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard | ||||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||
| o Data is a 14 day moving average | ||||||||
| o It usually takes 3-4 days for complete data to be reported. This assessment adjusts today’s | ||||||||
| information to estimate the likely additions to historical data. | ||||||||
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New cases and deaths in Wake County were the lowest total since mid-November. The number of new cases in Zip Code 27587 were also the lowest total since mid-November. There were reductions in cases in Zip Codes 27571 (Rolesville) and 27596 (Youngsville). No new deaths have been reported locally since February 14.
| North | Wake | Zip | Zip | Zip | ||
| Data as of 2/24/2021 | Carolina | County | 27587 | 27571 | 27596 | |
| Total Cases | 849830 | 73474 | 5529 | 587 | 1370 | |
| Total Deaths | 11074 | 520 | 42 | 0 | 3 | |
| Percent Deaths | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
| Cases (last 7 days) | 20123 | 1649 | 125 | 12 | 40 | |
| Deaths (last 7 days) | 404 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cases/100 Population | 8.10 | 6.71 | 7.43 | 7.94 | 7.35 | |
Federal Guidelines
The federal Coronavirus Task Force has developed stoplight charts for the states on three metrics. North Carolina has rated “red” for all categories for the last two months. Areas exceeding the federal guidelines are shown red. The number of new cases remains 3 times the guidelines as are deaths statewide.
| Federal Guidelines (data for last seven days) | |||||
| North Carolina | 3-Feb | 10-Feb | 17-Feb | 24-Feb | vs. Guideline |
| New Cases | 35385 | 29591 | 23809 | 20123 | 192% |
| Positive Test Rate | 9.08% | 8.05% | 7.44% | 7.03% | 70.3% |
| Deaths | 663 | 603 | 489 | 404 | 192% |
| Wake County | |||||
| New Cases | 4482 | 2798 | 2068 | 1649 | 152% |
| Deaths | 31 | 57 | 14 | 5 | 23% |
| Zip 27587 | |||||
| New Cases | 333 | 191 | 151 | 125 | 162% |
| Deaths | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Outlook for the Future
The key question is when North Carolina may further reopen the state. When North Carolina moved to Phase 3 of reopening on September 20, there had been around 8,000 new cases and 190 deaths in the prior week. The number was just above 20,000 new cases and 400 deaths in the most recent seven days. That means that further loosening is probably some time away despite the increasing number of vaccinated citizens.
The IMHE model from the University of Washington forecasts that the number of new infections will recede to the levels in the federal guidelines only around May 20. The IMHE forecast is for the percentage of positive tests to decline below 5% around April 20. The number of new deaths in a week is likely to drop below the federal guideline in late March.
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