By George Shaw
The trends remain positive as all key metrics are declining significantly. However, they remain well above the federal guidelines. The Governor’s current Executive Order for reopening North Carolina remains in effect through March 26. It is unlikely there will be a significant change in the guidelines at that time. A more complete reopening remains more likely in April or the first part of May.
Key COVID-19 Data
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most of the states. It remained the 15th lowest among the 50 states for the number of cases as well as the 13th lowest state in deaths per capita. And it remains the 28th highest in the rate of testing.
Although trends are increasingly encouraging for tests, cases and hospitalizations, the numbers remain somewhat higher than the levels in state and federal guidelines.
New tests in North Carolina are down 17% while the number of new cases reduced 23% during the prior week. The percentage of positive tests has declined from a peak in mid-January to a level last achieved in late August. Hospitalizations peaked on January 13 and have since decreased by 73%.
| 14 Day Moving Averages | Data | State | ||||||
| Criteria | 17-Feb | 24-Feb | 3-Mar | 10-Mar | Trend | Guideline | ||
| Testing | 49566 | 45111 | 43091 | 38597 | Down sharply | Level or down | ||
| New Cases | 3814 | 3138 | 2575 | 2010 | Down sharply | Level or down | ||
| % Positive Cases | 7.70% | 6.96% | 5.98% | 5.21% | Approaching 5% | 5% or less | ||
| Hospitalizations | 2192 | 1812 | 1489 | 1251 | Down sharply | Level or down | ||
| Source: covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard | ||||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||
| o Data is a 14 day moving average | ||||||||
| o It usually takes 3-4 days for complete data to be reported. This assessment adjusts today’s | ||||||||
| information to estimate the likely additions to historical data. | ||||||||
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New cases and deaths in Wake County were the lowest total since early November. The number of new cases in Zip Code 27587 were also the lowest total since early November. Another new death was reported for Zip Code 27587 on March 10. There remain no deaths in Zip 27571 and no new ones for Zip 27596.
| North | Wake | Zip | Zip | Zip | ||
| Data as of 3/10/2021 | Carolina | County | 27587 | 27571 | 27596 | |
| Total Cases | 877964 | 75183 | 5736 | 624 | 1462 | |
| Total Deaths | 11595 | 559 | 44 | 0 | 5 | |
| Percent Deaths | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | |
| Cases (last 7 days) | 12210 | 226 | 88 | 18 | 52 | |
| Deaths (last 7 days) | 232 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cases/100 Population | 8.37 | 6.97 | 7.71 | 8.44 | 7.84 | |
Federal Guidelines
The federal Coronavirus Task Force has developed stoplight charts for the states on three metrics. Areas exceeding the federal guidelines are shown red. The number of new cases was 152% of the federal guideline for North Carolina a week ago. Now it is 116%. There were similar drops in Wake County as well as the Zip Code for Wake Forest.
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Outlook for the Future
The key question is when North Carolina may make a significant change in policy. Examples would include raising the guideline from 25 for indoor gatherings to 50 or 100 as well as similar changes from 50 for outdoor events to 100 or 200. lthough the number of vaccinations is increasing in our state, there remains a danger of a renewed spike from variants of COVID-19 in the March to May timeframe.
There has been a reduction in cases and deaths for North Carolina is the March 6 update for the IHME Model. The number of new cases are forecast to decline to around 10,000 per week for North Carolina within 30 days, a level that would place our state below the “red zone” for federal guidelines. This model predicts this figure to drop to around 3,500 by May 24.
All this suggests a significant relaxation in North Carolina’s stay-at-home order is unlikely before mid-April or later.
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