COVID cases, hospitalizations have doubled in NC

By George Shaw

Summary

North Carolina has fared better than many states during the last several months. The seven-day average for new cases across the United States was 71,000 on November 2. This figure was 116,000 as of yesterday. This represents a 65% increase. Average daily deaths have increased 17% nationally since November 17.

Although our state is performing better than many peers, the metrics have turned significantly worse in recent weeks for the Tar Heel State. New cases and hospitalizations have seen double digit growth in recent weeks. This is true for the state, Wake County as well as most of our local zip codes. The impact on deaths recently has been comparatively minor.

Overseas trends point to an uncertain recovery from the virus.  Much of Europe has seen significant increases in cases from the Delta Variant although deaths have increased only slightly in the last several months. Meanwhile, South Africa has seen a 40-fold increase in new cases as the Omicron variety takes hold. However, there has not yet been a spike in fatalities.  The watchword is caution as we know little about the Omicron variant as well as its likely impact.

North Carolina

North Carolina has moved from the 21st lowest number of cases two weeks ago to 16th as of yesterday.  It remains the 14th lowest for deaths. The Tar Heel state also had the 30th highest rate of tests versus 28th during the prior week.

The number of tests increased 36% in the last seven days, compared to 1% growth the prior seven days. The 287,000 tests during the week ending today were the highest level in six weeks but were only 71% of the total of 404,000 reached during the week ending September 15.

New cases increased 65% in the last week. They dropped 13% the prior week in part because of lags in reporting over the Thanksgiving holiday period.  This week’s figures were the highest total in eight weeks.

Hospitalizations increased to 1,371 as of yesterday, the highest level since October 27.  Deaths were 147 during the prior week, an increase of 5%.

Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville

New cases increased 53% in Wake County, the highest level since the week of September 29.  Cases also grew 18% in zip code 27587 during the last seven days, the largest number in ten weeks. Newly reported cases rose by three in 27571 and to 56 in zip 27596.

Wake County had six deaths in the last week, twice the amount during the previous week. There was a third death in zip code 27571,

The percentage of vaccinations inched up slightly in the last week. 73% of the population in Wake County have received one shot; 69% have completed their vaccinations.  These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state.  62% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 58% have completed the requirement.  Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina rose to 107,000 during the last week.  This figure was nearly double the amount from the prior seven day period.

Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast

The number of new hospitalizations increased from 61 to 86 during the last week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 26% of hospitalized patients in Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units, a slight reduction from 29% the prior week.

No new outbreaks or clusters have been reported in our area.  The University of Washington has not updated their forecast for the virus since November 17.

There is much concern about the Omicron variety.  South Africa is a possible place of origin.   COVID cases in South Africa averaged less than 300 a day in mid-November.  The daily average is currently more than 12,000 cases.  However, deaths from the virus have only increased from 13 to 22 daily.

Meanwhile, Europe continues to be beset by the delta variant.  New cases have risen around 45% across the continent since October 15 and are now around 75% of the peak level in late April.  However, deaths on the Continent have only grown about 7% since mid-October.

#