COVID-19 update for Wake Forest area

By George Shaw

The State of North Carolina extended Phase 2 of the campaign to reopen North Carolina until September 11 in early August. What has happened with the virus in our area in the last two weeks?  How is the data at the state level tracking against criteria used to decide if North Carolina is likely to relax its guidelines for COVID-19?

Recent data for Wake Forest, Wake County and North Carolina 

The number of cases in our Zip Code 27587 increased from 613 on August 12 to 735 on August 26, an increase of 18%. There were 28 deaths two weeks ago; there are 29 confirmed fatalities as of today. The additional death did not occur in a nursing home.

Rolesville cases were 46 two weeks ago and are now 57, a 24% increase. No deaths have been reported from the virus in Zip 27571. Youngsville cases grew from 145 to 170, a 14% increase in the 14-day period.  There remains a single death in Zip 27596.

Wake County has reported a 13% increase in cases and 8% in deaths over the last two weeks. North Carolina has experienced a 13% growth in cases but deaths increased 14% over the comparable period.

Tracking the Metrics To Further Reopen North Carolina

Our state uses four criteria to decide whether our state should change its guidelines.  Each is measured as the average of the data over the last 14 days. The data can be located on the COVID-19 dashboard on the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) website.

1. Tests– the decision earlier this month to extend Phase 2 reported that the number of tests was “level but elevated.” The 14-day moving average is currently around 21,000 tests and has varied about 5% around this figure with daily updates.  This metric has been level over the last several weeks.
2. Cases– the number was “stable but high” early in August. This moving average declined steadily through August 18 but has risen from 1,350 to 1,423 during the last three days.
3. Percent of Positive Tests– the figure was “level but above 5%” early this month. This ratio declined from around 7.5% two weeks ago to 6.0% on Aug. 23 but has risen back to 6.8% as of today. This is well above a benchmark of 5%.
4. Hospitalizations– this curve was “beginning to flatten” early in August. This reduction has continued recently with hospitalizations declining from about a 14-day average of 1,050 two weeks ago to around 1,000 today.

We are about two weeks away from another decision on further reopening our state.  Recent data has not improved.  Unless there is significant improvement in the next two weeks, existing guidelines are unlikely to change.

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