By George Shaw
Summary
The data on the virus continues to move rapidly in the right direction at national, state and local levels. Yet, both cases and deaths remain significantly above the low levels of early summer 2021l.
The number of hospitalizations in our state dropped below 800 yesterday. There were only four new deaths in Wake County in the last week as well as no new deaths in our three Zip Codes in the prior 16 days.
North Carolina ranks 15th among the states for the Misery Index. This ratio combines the relative position of the states for the percentage of unemployed as well as the number of fatalities from the virus as a percentage of the population.
The four states with the best rankings for the Misery Index comprise about 2% of the total population and are overwhelmingly isolated or rural. Democratic-led states have unemployment rates that average 37% higher than Republican ones Republican-led states have virus mortality rates that are 23% higher than Democratic ones.
United States
New cases are currently about 30,000 on a seven-day moving average, down from approximately 40,000 a week ago. This week’s figure remains about 2.5 times higher than the moving average of June 20, 2021.
Daily deaths continue to average roughly 1,000 over the last week, a reduction of about 25% compared to the prior week. This continues to be roughly four times the average from early July 2021.
North Carolina
North Carolina moved from the 26th lowest number of cases among the states to the 25th during the last week. The Tar Heel State continued to have the 11th lowest mortality rate as well as the 29th highest rate of tests per capita.
The number of tests for the last seven days is 158,000, a decrease of 17% in the last week. This is the lowest weekly total since the seven days ending on July 21, 2021.
New cases reached a high of 217,000 in the week ending January 19. The amount for the week ending today is 8,930, a decline of 26% over the prior week. The last time the number of cases was this low was late July 2021.
The record daily figure for hospitalizations was 5,206 on January 26. This amount declined to 799 yesterday. This represents a decline of 27% in the last week. This is the lowest number of hospitalizations since July 21, 2021.
There were 143 deaths last week, down from the record of 578 set more than a month ago. This is a decrease of 27% in the last week and the lowest seven-day total of deaths since late December when the timing of the data was delayed by the holidays.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
There were 972 new cases in Wake County during the last week, a reduction of 34% from the prior seven-day period. This level was last reached in late July 2021. Our county recorded four new deaths in the last seven days, the lowest level since early January.
Zip code 27587 had 68 new cases in the last week, a reduction of 18% from the prior period. The last time that the number of new cases was this low was during the week ending July 21, 2021.
In addition, Zip code 27571 had only five new cases reported in the last week. Zip code 27596 had 19 new cases, an increase from 13 during the prior seven-day period. There were no new deaths in our three Zip codes since February 26.
|
|
The Capital Region is an area of five counties centered on Wake County used by the state to aggregate data on data for hospitals. The number of new hospitalizations peaked at 411 in our region on January 30. It was 51 yesterday, a decrease of 12% in the last seven days. The percentage of hospitalized patients in Intensive Care Units in our region decreased from 30% a week ago to 26% yesterday.
Comparing North Carolina to Other States – Unemployment and COVID-19 Deaths
States used different strategies to combat the virus. Measures such as lockdowns and restrictions on businesses have had significant economic repercussions especially in terms of employment and unemployment. And states with lower rates of wearing masks and vaccinations tend to have higher rates of mortality.
How has North Carolina fared compared to the other 49 states in terms of employment and deaths from COVID? I have constructed an index to compare states by measuring their results as a percent of the national average. I call this the “Misery Index.”
North Carolina’s unemployment rate of 3.9% in January 2022 is 90% of the average of the states. Its mortality rate from the virus as of the end of last month was 2,167 reported deaths per million population. That is 74% of the aggregate rate for all of the states. Our state’s combined rating is 82% of the national average. North Carolina currently ranks 15th among the states. The previous report ranked our state 12th lowest. The primary reason for the lower rating is the impact of updated data from the 2020 Decennial Census.
Which states have the best ratings?:
o Utah – 48% of the national average. The Beehive State unemployment rate of 2.2% is tied with Nebraska for the lowest in the country; its virus mortality rate is the third lowest.
o Vermont – 51% of the national average. The Green Mountain State has an unemployment rate of 3.0% that is 69% of the national average. It also has a rate of deaths from the virus that is the second lowest in the nation (32% of the national average).
o Nebraska – 61% of the national average. The Cornhusker State is tied for the lowest unemployment rate and has the 10th lowest rate of deaths from the virus.
o New Hampshire – 63%. The Granite State has the 9th best rate of unemployment (2.9%) and is tied 8th for the lowest death rate from the virus.
Which states have the least favorable ratings?
o New Mexico – 125% of the national average. The Land of Enchantment is not in terms of the Misery Index. It is 135% of the unemployment rate (5.9%) as well as the 114% of the mortality rate.
o Mississippi – 124%. The Magnolia State has an unemployment rate that is 105% of the national average as well as the highest mortality rate among the states.
o New York – 120%. The Empire State is tied for the fifth highest unemployment rate and the tenth highest mortality rate.
o New Jersey – 120%. The Garden State has the tenth highest unemployment rate and the eighth highest mortality rate from the virus.
o Pennsylvania -119%. The Keystone State has fifth highest unemployment rate and 12th highest mortality rate
What is the overall picture across the political spectrum since the virus began its impact nearly two years ago? States led by unified Republican governments have tended to fare better on unemployment but worse on the relative level of virus deaths.
o States with Republican leadership – overall Misery Index is 97% of the national average. Their index for unemployment is 85% but their rating for virus deaths is 110% of the national averages.
o States with mixed political leadership – overall Misery Index is 102% with unemployment at 107% and virus deaths at 97% of the national average.
o States with Democratic leadership – overall Misery Index is 103% with unemployment at 116% and virus deaths at 89% of the national average.
The updates from the Decennial Census accelerated the convergence of the data. Blue states generally benefited from the revised population and employment data more than Mixed or Red states did. The major change in the mortality from the virus has been the steady reduction from states with mixed leadership.
#
