By George Shaw
The previous column on the pandemic was on June 16 and the outlook was extremely positive. We reported that the number of new cases was down to 5% of the peak week which was the seven days ending on January 13. In addition, the number of hospitalizations and deaths were steadily decreasing.
The trough – the bottom – was reached shortly thereafter. The number of new cases and the percentage of positive tests bottomed out the following week. Hospitalizations reached their nadir on July 3. The number of tests and deaths dropped to new lows during the week of July 7.
The headline news since then has focused on the rapid rise in new cases and the significant growth in the percentage of tests that have been positive, especially among the unvaccinated. It has also highlighted several events where there have been large numbers of breakthrough cases.
However, if you have already completed your vaccinations, the probability of getting a breakthrough case is low. And if you catch the virus, the likelihood is that your case will be mild.
Nevertheless, there are several issues confronting those with full vaccinations:
o The effectiveness of the major vaccines has been very high. But will it erode over time, especially with additional variants?
o When will booster shots be available and approved for use?
o How likely is it that variants well beyond Delta will emerge? And how likely are they to be resistant to the existing vaccines?
The real concerns with the rebound in cases for the virus are generally not focused on sufficiently in the news coverage. Here are the key elements that I am following:
o The growth of hospitalizations as well as the increase in the number of ICU beds in use
o The number of deaths
o The changing demographics of who is getting the Delta variant as well as who has to be hospitalized
o The patterns of vaccination geographically. This applies to how well Wake County is doing compared to other North Carolina counties but also to where vaccination rates are high or low within Wake County.
I have changed the focus of the weekly update on COVID-19 to focus on several things:
o Comparing trends during the last seven days of reporting to the trough in late June or early July
o Contrasting the last week’s number with though of the peak last winter.
The bottom line is that the current numbers remain well below the high number of January and February. There will be significantly more detail next week on hospitalizations as well as vaccinations. Much more detail has been added by the North Carolina Department of Health & Human Services in the last two months.
Key COVID-19 Data
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states. The Tar Heel State was the 14th lowest in the number of new cases among the 50 states as of mid-June. It has slipped to 16th this week. That means that cases here are growing more rapidly than in many states.
The Tar Heel State remained the 14th lowest among the 50 states for the number of reported deaths during the last week as well as the 12th lowest per capita in terms of deaths. It remained the 27th in terms of the most number of tests.
So how rapid has the growth been since the low point in late June to early July? Total virus tests have doubled from 101,700 to 203,4000. The number of new cases has risen ten- fold from 2,021 to 20,691. The positive test rate has risen from 1.7% to 10.2% and hospitalizations have grown more than 400% from 373 to 1,580. Finally, deaths have increased from 33 to 94 in a span of three weeks.
Nevertheless, the numbers shown during the last seven days have been modest compared to the peak period of January and February. New cases are about one-third of the week of January 13. Hospitalizations are 40% and deaths only 19%…but they are rising.
| Last 7 Days – as of: | Record Week | % of Peak – as of: | Trough Week | % of Trough Week | ||||||||
| N.C. | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | Week | Number | 8/4/2021 | |
| Tests | 135240 | 166847 | 203413 | 13-Jan | 464861 | 29% | 36% | 44% | 7-Jul | 101762 | 200% | |
| New Cases | 7298 | 13478 | 20691 | 13-Jan | 58725 | 12% | 23% | 35% | 23-Jun | 2031 | 1019% | |
| % Positive | 5.4% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 13-Jan | 12.6% | 43% | 64% | 81% | 23-Jun | 1.7% | 598% | |
| Hospitalized | 758 | 1091 | 1580 | 13-Jan | 3992 | 19% | 27% | 40% | 3-Jul | 373 | 424% | |
| Deaths | 38 | 56 | 94 | 10-Feb | 489 | 8% | 11% | 19% | 7-Jul | 33 | 285% | |
| Last 7 Days – as of: | Record Week | % of Peak Week | Trough Week | |||||||||
| Wake County | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | Week | Number | 8/4/2021 | |
| New Cases | 574 | 1298 | 2202 | 13-Jan | 6147 | 9% | 21% | 36% | 30-Jun | 113 | 1949% | |
| Deaths | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10-Feb | 57 | 4% | 4% | 14-Jul | 1 | 500% | ||
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| Zip 27587 (Wake Forest) | Last 7 days | Record Week | % of Peak Week | |||||
| 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | |
| New Cases | 40 | 147 | 216 | 13-Jan | 464 | 9% | 32% | 47% |
| Deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31-Mar | 1 | |||
| Zip 27571 (Rolesville) | Last 7 days | Record Week | % of Peak Week | |||||
| 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | |
| New Cases | 4 | 17 | 17 | 3-Mar | 49 | 8% | 35% | 35% |
| Deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24-Mar | 1 | |||
| Zip 27596 (Youngsville) | Last 7 days | Record Week | % of Peak Week | |||||
| 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | |
| New Cases | 6 | 46 | 38 | 24-Feb | 131 | 5% | 35% | 29% |
| Deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-Apr | 2 | |||
The rapid growth in Wake County parallels that for North Carolina. New cases have risen nearly 20-fold since the trough five weeks ago. Deaths remain very low.
New cases in Zip Code 27587 have increased from 40 to 216 in the last two weeks. They are currently nearly half of the peak week of January 13. The corresponding figures for Zip 27571 and 27596 are more modest. There have been no deaths from the virus in our three zip codes since the May 28, more than two months ago.
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