WF’s ZIP 2nd highest in cases in NC with three deaths

By George Shaw

Summary

Dramatic changes in the course of COVID-19 continue.  Headlines continue to focus on rapidly increasing numbers of cases and accelerating hospitalizations.  Last week’s column had a cautiously optimistic tone.  The current view is even more upbeat for the next several months.

Omicron now comprises 98% of all cases in the United States, up from 95% a week ago.

However, the number of severe cases has been relatively modest; the percentage of hospitalizations is significantly lower than for previous variants of COVID-19.  The sheer magnitude of infections continues to fill up hospitals rapidly.  The really good news is that the percentage of patients requiring treatment in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) has plummeted across North Carolina in the last several weeks.

New cases nationally are running about three times previous highs and average about 750,000 over three last seven days.  Those figures may increase to 1.2 million in a single day.  Deaths at the national level have resumed rapid growth primarily because of the Delta variant.

North Carolina continues to fare better than many states, ranking 15th for the number of cases as well as 11th for deaths. This relatively good news masks the magnitude of trends in our state.  New cases in the Tar Heel State rose 167,000 in the last week, an increase of around 50%.  Although deaths grew only by 4%, hospitalizations increased by nearly a third.

The story is similar in Wake County as well as our local zip codes.  And the number of new cases in our area is growing significantly faster than across the state.  Wake Forest’s zip code has had 16,272 cases of the virus, the second highest total of any zip code in the Tar Heel State.  And three new deaths were reported in Wake Forest.

The University of Washington updated its forecast for the virus to modify the impact of Omicron based on recent experience in South Africa and Europe.  The number of new cases in the U.S. is expected to peak around January 19 and deaths within the following week.  The forecast predicts a rapid decline in both the number of cases and deaths, especially after March 1.  The one major caveat is if there is another potent variant of the virus, trends could quickly reverse themselves.

Please check out a special feature at the end of this week’s column.  There is a comparison of COVID-19 with similar major events over the last hundred years or so.

United States

New cases were around 90,000 a day before Thanksgiving.  They reached 595,000 on a seven-day average as of January 4.  They hit 756,000 as of yesterday, an increase of 27% during the last week.

The Center for Disease Control (CDC) reported yesterday that the Omicron variant is 98% of all COVID cases as of January 8.  It is 90% or more in all of CDC’s ten regions.  Omicron cases have generally been less severe although hospitalizations are increasing rapidly.

There were around 1,140 deaths daily before Thanksgiving on a weekly average.  This figure increased modestly to 1,260 as of January 4.  There were 1,674 deaths on a seven-day moving average as of yesterday..

Deaths continue to come primarily from the Delta variant, not Omicron.  The states with the greatest increase in reported deaths since January 1 have been Maine (6.0%) and Indiana (4.6%).  Deaths from the virus have also increased 4.1% in Colorado, Maryland and Wyoming.  The number of deaths have grown 1.4% in North Carolina during the same period.

North Carolina

North Carolina declined from the 13th lowest number of cases to the 15th best during the last week.  It also moved up from the 12th lowest mortality rate to 11th in the last week as Colorado has had higher mortality from the virus.  The Tar Heel state moved from the 30th highest rate of tests to the 29th in the last week.

Unfortunately, this masks the magnitude of the deaths.  The mortality rate for North Carolina as well as our local areas is significantly lower than many other areas. The national rate is one death for every 392 residents.  The rate in our state is 1:532.  Mississippi has the highest mortality rate (1 in 283 residents); Vermont continues to have the lowest rate (1 in 1,292 residents).  Wake County’s rate is 1:1,169 and Zip Code 27587 is 1:1,128.

The number of tests in our state increased 15% in the last seven days to 603,000.  This is much higher than the record of 478,000 for the week ending September 15 which occurred before Omicron.

New cases increased from 114,000 last week to 167,000 during the current period, an increase of 46%.  The updated figure is nearly three times the previous record from the week of January 6, 2021.

Hospitalizations reached 4,098 yesterday, an increase of nearly a third in the last week.  This figure surpassed the peak of 3,911 hospitalizations during the week of January 18 and 3,780 for the period ending September 18.

Deaths increased by 221 last week, up from 203 during the prior seven days.  Nevertheless, this amount is less than half of the record of 489 set for the seven days ending February 3 as well as well below the total of 256 for the week ending November 3.

Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville

New cases increased Wake County to nearly 30,000 in the last week. This is growth of almost 50%.  The pattern was similar for our three zip codes.  Zip 27587 increased by 2,391 cases last week, an increase from 1,830 over the previous seven-day period.  Zip code 27587 is now the 2nd highest number of cases in our state, trailing only 27610 (Southeast Raleigh).  It surpassed Zip code 28269 (Southeast Charlotte) during the last week.

Newly reported cases increased 56% in zip 27571 (Rolesville) as well as 39% in zip 27596 (Youngsville).

Wake County reported 16 deaths in the last week.  The previous increases were shown on December 28.  Posting of deaths are often delayed, especially over holiday periods.  Three of these deaths were in Zip Code 27587 (Wake Forest).

The percentage of vaccinations remains virtually unchanged.  75% of the population in Wake County has received one shot; 71% have completed their vaccinations.  These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state.  63% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 59% have completed the requirement.  Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina rose to 58,000 during the last week.  This is an increase of about 1000 from the prior week.

Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast

The number of new hospitalizations increased from  212 to 299 during the last week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake County. 18% of hospitalized patients in our Region were in Intensive Care Units.  The good news is that this is down significantly from the 38% of patients who were in ICUs two months ago.

The North Carolina Department of Health & Human Services listed four recent outbreaks in our area.  Cadence of Wake Forest reported 21 positive cases including three for staff members. Heritage High School has four students and a faculty member who tested positive; Hillside has 10 and the Goddard School has 10.

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington updated their forecast on January 10. Key assumptions were modified to reflect assessments coming out of areas hit by Omicron earlier than here.  Omicron’s impact has been much more extensive in South Africa and western Europe than previously believed.  These additional cases have generally been asymptomatic.  The sheer volume of cases is increasing the number of hospitalizations.

IHME now expects the number of reported cases to peak on January 19 at around 1.2 million in the United States.  This figure should drop sharply after that as the percent of the population that has had the virus, received shots and boosters, or is naturally immune reaches 60% by March.

This study predicts that the daily peak from deaths will be on January 24 which is three weeks earlier than their previous forecast.  Although Omicron is the dominant variant of COVID-19, the vast majority of deaths occurring so far in January are from the Delta version.

Their forecast of December 21 assumed a 16% increase in deaths through April 1, 2022.  The current forecast has reduced the growth to 9% by May 1.

How does North Carolina compare to the national forecast?  The  aggregate number of cases (including all asymptomatic ones) peaked on January 8 at 257,000 – about 2.5% of our state’s population in a single day).  The number of reported cases is expected to reach its highest level within a week.

Deaths in North Carolina are forecast to reach 71 a day on January 29 and then decline sharply.  This is about 10% below the peak from Delta last September and 30% lower than the peak from last January.  Deaths are expected to increase by 13% during the first four months of this year.  Nearly all of them are forecast to occur before March; only 78 deaths are indicated for the March-April time frame.

Comparison to Previous Viruses

The Spanish Flu (1918-1920) was the largest event in the last hundred years or so.  The estimated number of fatalities was about 675,000 but the county’s population was about 30% of what it is today.  It ended as an endemic – there were recurring cases and deaths but not on the same level.  There was no vaccine available at the time.

There were about 600,000 cases and 60,000 deaths from polio in the twentieth century.  Vaccines enabled its eradication by 1979.

Influenza also had a spike in the winter of 1957-8 when the Asian flu killed up to 70,000 Americans as well as many more overseas.  The original wave in 1957 was primarily among school-aged children; the subsequent wave in early 1958 was primarily focused on the elderly.  Initial doses of a vaccine were available in time for the initial wave but the number of deaths was still significant.

What about influenza in recent years?  The average number of infections has been around 30 million annually for the ten years before the impact of COVID.  This infection rate is estimated to have increased to 40 million for the 2017-8 through 2019-20 seasons.  The average number of deaths was roughly 36,000 a year for the decade as well as 39,000 for the final three years of the period.  2017-8 was the peak season with an estimated 61,000 deaths.

COVID-19 has resulted in approximately 850,000 deaths since early 2020.  It may reach one million before it becomes endemic.  The mortality rate of the Spanish Flu was approximately 2.5 times that of COVID-19.  The current pandemic’s mortality is roughly ten times as large as the average of influenza during the last decade in the United States.

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