Still much higher than in June 2021
George Shaw
Summary
The COVID-19 situation in our state continued to improve steadily with double digit reductions in the number of new cases and hospitalizations across North Carolina. The reduction in the number of deaths from the virus in North Carolina accelerated last week.
The number of new cases in Wake County rose slightly last week. However, new cases continued their decrease within each of the three zip codes in our area. This past week’s figures for Wake County and our area remain significantly above the lowest levels of new cases and deaths in 2021 which were recorded from late June to early July when the Delta variant began to impact our area.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states for the proportionate number of deaths but are now close to the national average for other key metrics. It has the 23rd lowest number of cases per capita and the 14th lowest for deaths. The Tar Heel state also had the 28th highest rate of tests.
All of the key metrics improved last week but remain well above the lows for 2021 set in the early summer.
The number of tests declined 10% in the last seven days, compared to a 4% reduction the prior week. The 262,000 tests during the week ending today were the lowest level in 13 weeks but were 157% higher than the 2021 low of the seven days ending July 7.
New cases declined 10% in the last week; they were reduced 17% the prior week. The 12,800 new cases during the last seven days were the lowest level since the week of July 21. Yet, this week’s figures remain six times higher than the 2021 weekly low set in late June.
Hospitalizations decreased by 23% during the last week to 1194, the lowest level since July 29, 2020. They were, however, 3.2 times higher than the 2021 low of 374 set on July 3.
Deaths were down 13% to 256, the lowest level since the week of August 11. However, this is seven times higher than the 33 deaths during the week of June 30, the lowest total for this year.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
New cases increased 2% in Wake County but declined in each of the three zip codes in our area. Wake County’s number of new cases was roughly 13 times higher than the 2021 low count set in late June; 27587’s figure was approximately 20 times this year’s high from just before the 4th of July weekend.
Wake County had eight deaths in the last week, up from five the previous week There were no new deaths in our three area zip codes.
The percentages of vaccinations have not changed in the last week. 69% of the population in Wake County has received one shot; 66% have completed their vaccinations. These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state. 59% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 56% have completed the requirement. Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina continued their decline since the week of August 23.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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New hospitalizations decreased 17% in the last week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 30% of hospitalized patients in the Tar Heel State and the Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) was not updated during the last week. The total number of deaths in our state is currently around 18,200. IMHE expects this number to increase to 20,251 by the end of January. Deaths are forecasted to decline through December 1 and slowly rise again as colder weather arrives and people are indoors for a greater portion of the day. This is a slip of six days from the previous outlook.
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