By George Shaw
Summary
We mentioned in recent columns that the metrics were flattening across North Carolina as well as locally. Almost all of the major indicators declined during the last week. The major exception is deaths. Reported deaths in the last seven days exceeded those in any other weekly period since the start of the pandemic. Deaths tend to lag new cases by 17 to 21 days so we are likely to witness modest increase for several more weeks.
The patterns are similar for Wake County as well as our three Zip Codes. The number of new cases in Zip Code 27587 reached 93% of the total for the all-time high timeframe set in mid-January during the week of August 25. The corresponding figure for the last week is 59%. Fatalities rose significantly in Wake County this past week. However, no new deaths were reported in our area.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states and the growth in key metrics continues to slow. The Tar Heel State dropped from the 19th to the 21th lowest rate of new cases during the most recent seven day period. Our state remained the14th lowest for deaths on a per capita basis among the 50 states. It also moved from the 27th to the 28th highest rate of tests.
The number of tests declined by 4% in the last seven days, compared to 4% growth the prior week. New cases declined by 5% in the last week, accelerating the drop of 1% during the previous seven day period. Hospitalizations decreased by 5% vs. flat numbers during the previous week. However, deaths grew 40% in the last week vs. 15% the previous one
How do North Carolina’s most recent numbers compare with the highest figures from last January and February? Tests for the last seven days are 89% in contrast to 93% the prior week. New cases dropped to 78% of the peak week in mid-January from 82% the week before.. Hospitalizations are down to 92% of the previous high period ending January 13 from 96% during the last seven day period. Deaths reported in the last week are 104% of the peak week of February 10.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
Meanwhile, the news closer to home is generally similar. New cases declined by 4% in Wake County and were flat in zip code 27587 during the last seven days. New cases bounced back last week in Zip Code 27571 and grew 37% in the Youngsville zip code.
Wake County had 23 deaths in the last week, the highest rate since mid-March. No additional deaths were reported in Zip Code 27587 as of today. Only six deaths have been reported in Youngsville and one in Rolesville from the virus in the last 18 months.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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New hospitalizations decreased 5% in the last week across North Carolina but grew 17% in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. One in four hospitalized patients in the Tar Heel State continued to be in Intensive Care Units. The share has increased to 36% in the Capital Region. 88% of available ICU beds and 45% of ventilators in our region are in use.
Several locations in Wake Forest have reported virus outbreaks but the numbers are unchanged from last week. The Endeavor Charter School 1 and 2 have had a total of 19 cases among students. In addition, Hillside has two and Cadence has had four cases.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was updated recently. The date for the maximum number of deaths from COVID-19 was forecast to be September 24 on August 25. The day with a peak number of reported deaths was moved up to September 16 a week ago.
