By George Shaw
Summary
New cases and hospitalizations have flattened in North Carolina. The lack of growth may in part be caused by delays in reporting during the Labor Day weekend. Deaths continue to increase, reflecting a lag of several weeks from the rapid growth in new cases and hospitalizations in late August.
There were modest increases in new cases in Wake County and Zip Code 27587 (Wake Forest). Meanwhile the number of new cases declined in Rolesville and Youngsville. Hospitalizations grew only slightly in the Capital Region. Three new deaths were reported in Zip Code 27587 today, bringing the total to 56.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states and the growth in key metrics continues to slow. The Tar Heel State improved to the 19th lowest in new cases but slipped from 12th to the 14th lowest for deaths on a per capita basis among the 50 states. It also moved from the 28th to the 27th highest rate of tests.
The number of tests rose by 3% in the last seven days, down from 7% the prior week. New cases declined by 1% in the last week vs. growth of 13% during the previous seven-day period. Hospitalizations also decreased by 1% vs. a 7% growth during the previous week. Deaths grew 15% in the last week vs. 22% the previous one.
How do North Carolina’s most recent numbers compare with the highest figures from last January and February? Tests for the last seven days are 90% and new cases remain 82% of the peak week in mid-January. Hospitalizations are 95% of the previous high period ending January 13. And deaths grew from 65% last week to 75% of the high period ending February 10.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
Meanwhile, the news closer to home is generally somewhat upbeat. New cases increased by 4% in Wake County as well as 14% in zip code 27587 during the last seven days. New cases declined 15% last week in Zip Code 27571 and 7% in the Youngsville zip code. Three additional deaths were reported in Zip Code 27587 today. Only six deaths have been reported in Youngsville and one in Rolesville from the virus in the last 18 months.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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New hospitalizations decreased 17% in the last week across North Carolina but grew 77% in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. One in four hospitalized patients in the Tar Heel State continued to be in Intensive Care Units. The share has increased to 30% in the Capital Region. 87% of available ICU beds and 47% of ventilators in our region are in use. These figures compare to 82% and 45% respectively for the prior seven-day period.
Several locations in Wake Forest have reported virus outbreaks but the numbers are unchanged from last week. The Endeavor Charter School 1 and 2 have had a total of 19 cases among students. In addition, Hillside has two and Cadence has had four cases.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was updated on August 25. The number of new cases (including those not tested) was expected to peak about two weeks ago but the reported cases continue to grow. The date for the maximum number of deaths from COVID-19 has moved from September 15 to September 24, reflecting continuing recent increases.
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