New cases slow, hospitalizations and deaths rise in NC

By George Shaw

Summary

The rate of growth continues to slow down for new cases of the virus.  However, hospitalizations continue to accelerate across North Carolina.  Deaths continue to increase, reflecting a lag of several weeks from positive tests and hospitalization.

The number of new cases declined across Wake County, zip code 27587 (Wake Forest) and zip code 27596 (Youngsville).  However, new cases grew about 15% in zip code 27571 (Rolesville).  Although the number of hospitalizations stabilized in the Capital Region which includes Wake County, the portion of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 increased from 25% the prior week to 29% last week.

North Carolina

North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states and the growth in key metrics continues to slow. The Tar Heel State remained the 20th lowest in new cases and the 12th lowest on a per capita basis among the 50 states. It also remained as the 28th highest rate of the number of tests.

The number of tests rose by 1% in the last seven days, down from 15% the prior week. New cases rose by 13% in the last week vs. 18% during the previous seven day period.  Hospitalizations grew by 7% compared to 20% the previous week. Deaths grew 22% in the last week vs. 61% the prior one.

How do North Carolina’s most recent numbers compare with the highest figures from last January and February?  Tests for the last seven days are 83% and new cases are 82% of the peak week in mid-January. Hospitalizations are 93% of the previous high period ending January 13, an increase from 84% the prior week. And deaths grew from 53% last week to 65% of the high period ending February 10.

Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville

Meanwhile, the news closer to home generally is more optimistic.  New cases declined  by 5% in Wake County as well as 27% in zip code 27587 during the last seven days. New cases grew 14% last week in Zip Code 27571 but decreased 27% in the Youngsville zip code. The 53rd death was reported in zip code 27587 last Friday.  Only six deaths have been reported in Youngsville and one in Rolesville from the virus in the last seventeen months.

Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast

The rate or growth of new hospitalizations has also slowed down.  It was only 5% in the last week across North Carolina and was flat in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake.  One in four hospitalized patients in the Tar Heel State continued to be in Intensive Care Units.  That share has increased to 29% in the Capital Region.  82% of available ICU beds and 45% of ventilators in our region are in use.

Several locations in Wake Forest have reported virus outbreaks.  The Endeavor Charter School 1 and 2 have had a total of 19 cases among students.  In addition, Hillside Nursing Home has two and Cadence, an assisted living,  has had four cases.

The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was updated on August 25.  The number of new cases (including those not tested) was expected to peak about ten days ago but the reported cases continue to grow.  The maximum number of deaths from COVID-19 is expected around September 15.

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