By George Shaw
Summary
The rate of growth of new cases has slowed down but it still increased 14% last week in North Carolina. Meanwhile, the number of hospitalizations grew nearly 20% during the last seven days and is now at 88% of the peak week from mid-January.
Double digit growth in new cases continues in Wake County, Zip Code 27587 (Wake Forest) and Zip Code 27596 (Youngville). The first death from the virus in nearly five months was recorded today in our zip code. There are three significant clusters of the virus in Wake Forest.
Key COVID-19 Data
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states. The Tar Heel State improved from the 20th to the 19th lowest among the 50 states. The number of reported deaths during the last week remained the 12th lowest on a per capita basis. It declined from the 27th to the 28th in terms of the most number of tests.
The number of tests rose by 6% and the new cases by 14% in North Carolina during the last seven days. Hospitalizations grew 19% while deaths grew by 61%.
How do North Carolina’s most recent numbers compare with the highest figures from last January and February? Although the rate of growth in tests and new cases has slowed down in the last seven days, they are roughly two-thirds of peak levels. Meanwhile, hospitalizations continue to rise rapidly to 88% of the record week of January 13. And deaths are now more than half they were the week with the largest amount last February.
Meanwhile, new cases grew 14% in Wake County as well as 32% in zip code 27587. New cases grew only 3% last week in Zip Code 27571. However, they increased 27% in the Youngsville zip code. A death was reported in Wake Forest today, the first one since late March.
The number of new hospitalizations has grown five-fold in North Carolina during the past five weeks. Meanwhile, the increase in the number of adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU).patients was 18%. Nevertheless, about 25% of hospitalized patients remain in ICUs. 80% of available ICU beds and 47% of ventilators in our region are in use.
Although there has been tremendous growth in the number of new cases, the cases have generally been milder. This is in part due to vaccinations. 71% of Wake County residents 12 and older are fully vaccinated. 96% of the most vulnerable part of our population (those 65 years of age or older) has received both vaccine shots. The average age of new cases in Wake County during the last week was 34 years old.
Three locations in Wake Forest have reported virus outbreaks. Endeavor Charter School has had 11 cases among students. In addition, Hillside has two and Cadence has had four cases.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was updated on August 19. The number of new cases (including those not tested) was expected to peak this past Monday but the reported cases continue to grow. The maximum number of deaths from COVID-19 is expected three weeks from now.
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