Deaths nearly double but cases slow

By George Shaw

Summary

The overall storyline is changing.  During previous weeks, the number of new cases and hospitalizations has increased rapidly while deaths from the virus remain relatively low. In the last week, however, the rate of growth of new cases and hospitalizations have slowed considerably but the number of deaths nearly doubled. New cases are 62% and hospitalizations are 73% for the peak week in North Carolina.  New cases were around 70% of the highest seven day period for Zip Code 27587 (Wake Forest) and 27571 (Rolesville).

More than 70% of the residents of Wake County and the surrounding area are fully vaccinated including 96% of those 65 and older.  The average age of new cases in our area was 32 last week.

Key COVID-19 Data

North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states.  The Tar Heel State dropped from the 18th to the 20th lowest among the 50 states. The number of reported deaths during the last week remained the 12th lowest on a per capita basis. It remained the 27th in terms of the most number of tests.

The number of tests rose by 7% and the new cases by 12% in North Carolina during the last seven days. Hospitalizations grew 27% while deaths grew by 72%.

How do North Carolina’s most recent numbers compare with the highest figures from last January and February? The rate of growth in tests, new cases and hospitalizations have slowed down in the last seven days. However, they all are roughly two-thirds of peak levels.  Meanwhile, although the number of deaths accelerated significantly in the most recent week, they remain only one-third of the week ending February 10.

Meanwhile, new cases grew 24% in Wake County as well as 31% in zip code 27587. Deaths increased from 1 to 7 in Wake County.   There have been no deaths from the virus in our three zip codes since May 28, a period of almost three months.

The number of new hospitalizations has more than quadrupled in North Carolina during the past four weeks. The rate of growth of new hospitalizations has decreased from 44% the prior week to 8% in the last seven days.  Meanwhile, the increase in the number of adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU).patients declined from 51% to 24%.   Nevertheless, about 25% of hospitalized patients remain in ICUs. The trends for the Capital Region are roughly similar to those of our state.

Although there has been tremendous growth in the number of new cases, the cases have generally been milder. This is in part due to vaccinations.  71% of Wake County residents 12 and older are fully vaccinated.  96% of the most vulnerable part of our population (those 65 years of age or older) has received both vaccine shots. The average age of new cases in Wake County during the last week was 32 years old.

The forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has not been updated since August 5.

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