By George Shaw
Summary
The headline reports on the virus are a steady drumbeat of increases but they do not tell the entire story. New cases and the numbers hospitalized are now about 55% of the peak figures from mid-January. Yet deaths declined slightly last week and remained less than 20% of the highest point during the week ending February 10.
Although there has been tremendous growth in the number of new cases, the cases have generally been milder. This is in part due to vaccinations. 84% of the most vulnerable part of our population (those 65 years of age or older) has received both vaccine shots. This compares to a vaccination rate of 55% of the population 12 years of age or older. The median age of new cases during the week of August 1 was around 30 years in Wake County. And the average age of newly hospitalized patients in our area is 55 compared to about 65 last October.
The key concerns are the rise in the number of hospitalized patients and the high portion of new patients who are in Intensive Care Units.
Finally, North Carolina is probably two to three weeks away from the peak in new cases according to the University of Washington’s health forecasting organization. And that deaths will probably start declining in about five weeks
Key COVID-19 Data
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states. The Tar Heel State dropped from the16th to the 18th lowest among the 50 states. The number of reported deaths during the last week remained the 12th lowest on a per capita basis. It remained the 27th in terms of the most number of tests.
The number of tests rose by 21% and the new cases by 61% in North Carolina during the last seven days. Hospitalizations grew 46% while deaths declined by 5%.
| Last 7 Days – as of: | Record Week | % of Peak – as of: | ||||||||
| N.C. | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 |
| Tests | 135312 | 167664 | 221434 | 267267 | 13-Jan | 464861 | 29% | 36% | 48% | 57% |
| New Cases | 7298 | 13478 | 20691 | 32586 | 13-Jan | 58725 | 12% | 23% | 35% | 55% |
| % Positive | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 13-Jan | 12.6% | 43% | 64% | 74% | 97% |
| Hospitalized | 758 | 1091 | 1580 | 2304 | 13-Jan | 3992 | 19% | 27% | 40% | 58% |
| Deaths | 38 | 56 | 94 | 90 | 10-Feb | 489 | 8% | 11% | 19% | 18% |
| Last 7 Days – as of: | Record Week | % of Peak – as of: | ||||||||
| Wake County | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 |
| New Cases | 574 | 1298 | 2202 | 3265 | 13-Jan | 6147 | 9% | 21% | 36% | 53% |
| Deaths | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10-Feb | 57 | 4% | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| Zip 27587 (Wake Forest) | Last 7 days | Record Week | % of Peak – as of: | |||||||
| 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 | |
| New Cases | 40 | 147 | 216 | 249 | 13-Jan | 464 | 9% | 32% | 47% | 54% |
| Deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31-Mar | 1 | ||||
| Zip 27571 (Rolesville) | Last 7 days | Record Week | % of Peak – as of: | |||||||
| 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 | |
| New Cases | 4 | 17 | 17 | 32 | 3-Mar | 49 | 8% | 35% | 35% | 65% |
| Deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24-Mar | 1 | ||||
| Zip 27596 (Youngsville) | Last 7 days | Record Week | % of Peak Week | |||||||
| 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 | Week | Number | 7/21/2021 | 7/28/2021 | 8/4/2021 | 8/11/2021 | |
| New Cases | 6 | 46 | 38 | 65 | 24-Feb | 131 | 5% | 35% | 29% | 50% |
| Deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-Apr | 2 | ||||
Meanwhile, new cases grew 46% in Wake County as well as 46% in zip code 27587. Deaths declined from 5 to 3 in Wake County. There have been no deaths from the virus in our three zip codes since May 28, more than two months ago.
Tests and New Cases are currently about 55% of the peak week in mid-January. The percentage of hospitalizations is nearly 60% of the highest seven day period. Yet, deaths have remained less than 20% of the peak seven day period in mid-February.
The number of new hospitalizations has more than tripled in North Carolina during the past three weeks. Yet, the corresponding number for the Capital Region (Wake and four neighboring counties including Franklin) has leveled off. Meanwhile, about 25% of hospitalized patients are in Intensive Care Units.
| 20-Jul | 27-Jul | 3-Aug | 10-Aug | |
| Hospitalizations | ||||
| o North Carolina | 698 | 1091 | 1580 | 2304 |
| o Capital Region | 48 | 82 | 145 | 185 |
| New Hospitalizations | ||||
| o North Carolina | 102 | 182 | 237 | 342 |
| o Capital Region | 6 | 12 | 24 | 22 |
| Adult ICU Patients | ||||
| o North Carolina | 195 | 253 | 388 | 586 |
| o Capital Region | 16 | 24 | 36 | 46 |
| % ICU Patients | ||||
| o North Carolina | 28% | 23% | 25% | 25% |
| o Capital Region | 33% | 29% | 25% | 25% |
So, what is the forecast for the virus in North Carolina? The Institute For https://sdarcwellness.com/buy-klonopin-online/ Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) from the University of Washington forecasts data at the state level through December 1. The last update for their model was on August 5 before the most recent upsurge in cases and hospitalizations.
IHME forecasts that new cases would peak on August 24 in about two weeks. Hospitalizations are expected to rise until September 9 (another month) and deaths from the virus on September 14 (five weeks from now).
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