COVID: Really good news

By George Shaw

Summary

All of the key metrics show dramatic reductions in the last week despite the ending of mask and social distancing requirements nearly three weeks ago.  The number of reported new cases in the last week is the lowest figure in more than a year.  Reported deaths in the last seven days are at their lowest level in the last ten months.  The rate of new vaccinations continues to slow significantly.

Key COVID-19 Data

North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states.   They are unchanged from the prior week. The Tar Heel State remained the 14th lowest among the 50 states for the number of cases during the last week as well as the 13th lowest state in deaths per person. It also kept its ranking as 26th in terms of the most number of tests.

Data for the last seven days improved in our state against all of the key metrics. New tests in North Carolina are down 22% vs. 11% the prior week. The number of new cases is down 35% compared to 21% during the prior seven-day period. The percentage of positive tests decreased significantly from 3.6% to 3.0% in the last week. Hospitalizations declined from 681 a week before to 600 today.

The number of new cases for the last week was the lowest figure since mid-May 2020. The corresponding number of deaths for the prior seven-day period was the lowest since mid-July 2020.

North Carolina’s County Alert System was last updated on May 27 measuring the two weeks up to May 22. 55 counties moved to a better position and 4 to a worse one during the prior 14 days. No counties are currently rated red, 9 orange, 41 yellow and 45 counties are coded light yellow. Henderson County was the only county listed as green on May 8. Although there were five counties with a green rating on May 22, they account for only 2% of the state’s population.

How is Wake County doing compared to the other 99 counties?   Our county’s ranking has improved slightly during the past two weeks. It currently ranks 67th lowest in the number of new cases (vs. 32th in the prior period). It is also the 45th highest in percent of positive tests over a two-week period (vs. 54th during the prior two-week period). Wake’s share of North Carolina’s cases has slowly declined since May 10.

4.2 million Tar Heels have received their first dose while 3.8 million have their second shots as of April 19.  An additional 304,000 had a vaccine requiring a single shot. The number of new shots decreased from 230,000 to 138,000 doses administered during the last full week (May 24).  56% residents of Wake County have received partial doses and 50% have completed their requirements.

New cases in Wake County declined 38% last week compared to an 8% increase for the prior seven-day period. The number of new cases in Zip Codes 27587 declined nearly 38% during the last week while those in 27571 decreased 56%  and 27596 declined 62%.

There were four reported deaths from the virus in Wake County during the last week. Over the course of the pandemic, Zip Code 27571 has had 8% more cases than North Carolina as a whole.  Zip Code 27596 has had slightly more cases than our state. However, deaths across our three areas remain proportionately lower than either Wake County or North Carolina.

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