By George Shaw
The trends remain positive as all key metrics are declining significantly. And they are now below federal and many state guidelines for critical concern. he Governor’s current Executive Order for reopening North Carolina remains in effect through March 26. Although there may continue to be modest relaxation in the near future, it is unlikely there will be a significant change in the guidelines in mid-April or the first part of May.
Key COVID-19 Data
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most of the states. It remained the 15th lowest among the 50 states for the number of cases. It moved from the 13th lowest state in deaths per capita to the 12th least. And it declined slightly from the 28th to the 27th highest rate of testing.
The trends continue to move in the right direction. The key change in the last week is that all three metrics in the federal guidelines are no longer code red. And all four metrics tracked by North Carolina continue to drop significantly.
New tests in North Carolina are down 5% while the number of new cases reduced 23% during the prior week. The number of new cases for the last seven days dropped below 10,000 for the first time since September 23. The percentage of positive tests dropped below the key metric of 5% of new cases for the last two weeks. Hospitalizations peaked on January 13 and have since decreased by 75%.
North Carolina’s County Alert System was last updated on March 4, 2021. Wake County shows as Substantial Risk/Orange Rating, the same as in the previous report on February 22. This report is scheduled to be updated tomorrow. It is likely that our county will move from Orange to Yellow (Significant Impact) if the positive test rate for the last 14 days is less than 5.0%. It was 5.3% on March 4.
2.1 million Tar Heels have received their first dose while 1.3 million have their second shots. An additional 73 thousand have a vaccine requiring a single shot. Our state continues to ramp up its vaccination program with 437 thousand doses administered during the last full week (March 8). 19.5% residents of Wake County have received partial doses and 12.0% have completed their requirements.
There are two outbreaks currently reported in Wake Forest as of March 16, 2021. Hillside Nursing Home has reported five staff and 12 residents have tested positive. Four staff and one student have also tested positive at Envision Science Academy. No similar outbreaks have been reported for Rolesville or Youngsville.
| 14 Day Moving Averages | Data | State | ||||||
| Criteria | 24-Feb | 3-Mar | 10-Mar | 17-Mar | Trend | Guideline | ||
| Testing | 45132 | 43154 | 39582 | 34736 | Down sharply | Level or down | ||
| New Cases | 3138 | 2575 | 2010 | 1704 | Down sharply | Level or down | ||
| % Positive Cases | 6.95% | 5.97% | 5.08% | 4.91% | 5% or less | 5% or less | ||
| Hospitalizations | 1812 | 1489 | 1250 | 1080 | Down sharply | Level or down | ||
| Source: covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard | ||||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||
| o Data is a 14 day moving average | ||||||||
| o It usually takes 3-4 days for complete data to be reported. This assessment adjusts today’s | ||||||||
| information to estimate the likely additions to historical data. | ||||||||
|
|
|
New cases in Wake County bumped up by slightly last week but are down by 71% since the week of February 3. The number of new cases in Zip Code 27587 have decreased by 82% since the week of January 13. No new deaths were reported in our area.
| North | Wake | Zip | Zip | Zip | ||
| Data as of 3/17/2021 | Carolina | County | 27587 | 27571 | 27596 | |
| Total Cases | 889612 | 77516 | 5820 | 654 | 1501 | |
| Total Deaths | 11757 | 576 | 44 | 0 | 5 | |
| Percent Deaths | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | |
| Cases (last 7 days) | 11648 | 2333 | 84 | 30 | 39 | |
| Deaths (last 7 days) | 162 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cases/100 Population | 8.48 | 7.08 | 7.82 | 8.85 | 8.05 | |
Federal Guidelines
The federal Coronavirus Task Force has developed stoplight charts for the states on three metrics. This is one of the indicators to help understand better when our state will reopen more. Areas exceeding the federal guidelines are shown red. The key trend is that all three of the criteria are no longer red for North Carolina. Cases are below the threshold for both Wake County and Zip Code 27587.
| Federal Guidelines (data for last seven days) | ||||||
| North Carolina | 24-Feb | 3-Mar | 10-Mar | 17-Mar | vs. Guideline | Guideline |
| New Cases | 20123 | 15924 | 11769 | 9587 | 91% | 10500 |
| Positive Test Rate | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 53.2% | |
| Deaths | 404 | 289 | 232 | 162 | 77% | 210 |
| Wake County | ||||||
| New Cases | 1649 | 1483 | 1275 | 1284 | 118% | 1085 |
| Deaths | 5 | 12 | 27 | 17 | 78% | 21.7 |
| Zip 27587 | ||||||
| New Cases | 125 | 119 | 88 | 84 | 109% | 77 |
| Deaths | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.54 |
Outlook for the Future
The key question is when North Carolina may make a significant change in policy. Examples would include raising the guideline from 25 for indoor gatherings to 50 or 100 as well as similar changes from 50 for outdoor events to 100 or 200. Although the number of vaccinations is increasing in our state, there remains a danger of a renewed spike from variants of COVID-19 in the March to May timeframe.
The March 11 update to the IHME Model from the University of Washington does not show a significant change in the forecast for cases and deaths in North Carolina. The number of new cases are forecast to decline to around 10,000 per week for North Carolina by April 14, a level that would place our state below the “red zone” for federal guidelines. This model predicts this figure to drop to around 3500 by May 5. This figure of 500 per day had been forecast for May 24.
All this suggests a significant relaxation in North Carolina’s stay-at-home order is unlikely before mid-April or later.
#
