By George Shaw
The Big Picture
The rate of unemployment fell dramatically since it peaked in April 2020 but has slowed down with the resurgence of the virus. The rebound in job categories that pay above the average has been strong; the recovery in lower paying categories still lags. The number of those who remain food insecure remains high. There is currently much uncertainty about a new stimulus program and expiring unemployment insurance programs.
Overall Unemployment
The unemployment rate in North Carolina was 3.6% in February and peaked at 12.9% in April. It was 6.1% in January and slid to 5.9% in February. Employment grew by a modest 9800 while unemployment decreased by 10300. Employment has rebounded 685,000 since April; the figure remains 190,000 lower than before COVID-19 impacted our state. Unemployment was 298,000 last month vs.183,000 a year ago.
The trend for Wake County is similar to those of North Carolina. February’s unemployment rate was 3.2% and it rose to 11.5% by May. The last reported rate was 5.2% in Unemployment was 23,600 in February and spiked at 77,000 in May. It was 37,000 in December, virtually unchanged since October. In addition, approximately 15,000 residents of our county have left the labor force.
Unemployment by Category
The only labor categories with year-over-year growth through December 2020 are Professional and Business Services (one of the highest paying categories) which is up 4.9% and for Trade, Transportation and Utilities (one of the lower paying categories because of the large number of drivers as well as retail sales jobs).
Although all other major categories have annual job losses since December 2020, the sharpest decline is for Leisure and Hospitality. There was significant year-over-year recovery through October 2020 but the resurgence of COVID-19 caused the number employed in this area which is the lowest paying to erode again.
Raleigh has been grouped by McKinsey as a high performance hub with a dozen other mid-size metro areas. Raleigh’s performance in the last month was about average in most of the labor categories. However, it has performed better than average for total non-farm employment as well as for both higher and lower wage segments. Although Leisure and Hospitality employment is 22% lower than January 2020, that is significantly better than the average of the 13 hubs of a 30% decline. The rate of decrease in states with Democratic Governors was 31% and 17% for those with Republican Governors in the year through December.
| Monthly Change (Dec-Jan) | National | Growth Hubs | Raleigh/Cary | Raleigh’s Rank (of 13) |
| Total Non-Farm Employment | -0.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 7 |
| Total Private Employment | -0.1% | 1.2% | 1.56% | 6 |
| Higher Wage Segments | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.97% | 8 |
| Lower Wage Segments | -0.1% | 1.7% | 2.439% | 6 |
| Leisure & Hospitality | 0.2% | -0.6% | 2.12% | 3 |
| Yearly Change (January) | National | Growth Hubs | Raleigh/Cary | Raleigh’s Rank (of 13) |
| Total Non-Farm Employment | -6.3% | -7.0% | -3.13% | 5 |
| Total Private Employment | -6.4% | -7.2% | -2.6% | 1 |
| Higher Wage Segments | -3.6% | -2.8% | 1.30% | 3 |
| Lower Wage Segments | -10.0% | -13.1% | -6.1% | 1 |
| Leisure & Hospitality | -22.2% | -30.13% | -21.9% | 6 |
| *Higher Wage – Leisure/ Hospitality | -18.7% | -27.3% | -23.2% | 7 |
| Notes: | ||||
| o Higher Wage Segments – Mining, Manufacturing, Information, Finance and Professional & Business Services | ||||
| o Lower Wage Segments – Trade, Transport & Utilities, Leisure & Hospitality & Other Services | ||||
The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was collected in mid-January for Leisure and Hospitality. This was close to the peak for new COVID cases. Data for February may be more positive as it will largely be after the peak for the virus.
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