COVID weekly update

By George Shaw

Summary

Wake County continues to be rated “yellow” in the state’s new county stoplight system which means there is significant but not critical risk of community spread of COVID-19.

The rate of growth in the State’s key metrics continues to increase.  Although the rapid growth in testing and cases has slowed down after Thanksgiving, the percent of positive tests and the number of hospitalizations have risen significantly.  Nevertheless, our county and zip code have been impacted much less significantly than North Carolina as a whole. Our state continues to be impacted less severely than about two-thirds of the other states.

Shaw also added in a note to the editor, “But the rise in hospitalizations is worrying as is the likelihood that the demand for ICU units will exceed demand in two weeks. Stay safe!”

Key COVID-19 Data

Despite the increase in most metrics, North Carolina’s ratings remain better than the majority of states. It moved from 36th to 37th among the 50 states for the number of cases on a per capita basis. It declined from 35th for deaths from the virus to 36th. It remained the 30th highest rate of tests.

The number of new cases increased from 21,348 last week to 25,088 during the seven days ending today. The weekly growth was 17%, up from 5% last week. The number of deaths increased from 202 to 228 for this seven-day period, an increase of 13%.

The 14-day moving average has been used to determine whether our state should adjust its overall guidance. The data is still recovering from a slowdown in reporting over the holiday weekend.

The peak in the number of tests was reported on Thanksgiving day with a combined total of nearly 65,000 tests. However, the 14-day moving average has eroded steadily since then. Although the moving average for the number of cases continues to increase, the peak of 4,512 cases was reached 10 days ago on November 22. The moving average for the number of positive new cases exceeded 8% today, up from 6.3% a month ago.

The number of deaths reported today was 86, the highest figure for a single date. The total during the last week was 228, the second highest 7-day total for our state.

Similarly, the number of hospitalizations passed 2000 on Monday. This represents roughly a 65% increase from a month ago. There are approximately 7,000 hospital beds that can be used by COVID patients in our state according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. This means there is significant additional capacity for hospitalizations.  However, there are only 500-600 Intensive Care Units available in North Carolina. IHME’s model indicates that the Tar Heel State will exceed that number by the middle of December.

Key metrics were mixed in Wake County.  New cases increased from 1,880 last week to 2,225 this week while there were only five reported new deaths in the county during the last week. Testing and hospitalization data is collected on the basis of the Capital Region which includes Wake as well as some surrounding counties.  The percent of positive tests remains below 8% for our area.

The number of cases in our Zip Code 27587 rose from 190 in the preceding seven-day period to 223 in the last week, a 13% increase. An additional death was reported in the last week.

Zip Code 27571 (Rolesville) reported 31 new cases this past week, double the 15 cases during the previous week.  Zip 27596 (Youngsville) rose by 41 cases, down from 49 cases reported for the previous week. Zip 27571 has reported no deaths; Zip 27596 reported its second fatality.

Federal Guidelines

The federal Coronavirus Task Force has developed stoplight charts for the states on three metrics which have not been officially published but the data is available. North Carolina is currently rated “red” for the number of new cases since the week of September 30. However, the number of deaths is no longer above the guideline.  Both Wake County and Zip 27587 rated red for the number of new cases this week. Areas exceeding the federal guidelines are shown red.

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