Weekly COVID-19 update

By George Shaw

Wake County continues to be rated “yellow” in the state’s new County stoplight system, which means there is significant but not critical risk of community spread of COVID-19.

The rate of growth in the State’s key metrics continues to increase. With the increase in testing before the Thanksgiving holiday, the number of new cases set records at the state level last Thursday and Sunday. Wake County had 1,777 new cases this week and Zip Code 27587 rose to 160.  Nevertheless, our county and zip code have been impacted much less significantly than North Carolina as a whole, which has fared better than around two-thirds of the 50 states.

County Stoplight Tracker

North Carolina announced an alert system for tracking COVID by county on November 16 because of the steady increase in the number of cases. The system tracks the number of cases, the percent of positive tests as well as metrics for hospitalization. It will be updated each Monday. Although the system does not mention resumption of statewide lockdowns, it sets criteria to encourage counties and municipalities to consider more stringent ordinances.

The number of North Carolina counties rated with “red” (critical community spread) doubled from 10 to 20 this week while the number of “yellow” ratings (significant) declined from 48 to 38. Wake County remains in the yellow group. Positive tests remain 5.7% of total new cases.  f that ratio increased to 8%, our county would move to an orange rating which donates substantial community spread. The guidelines remain the same but individuals are encouraged to restrict contact beyond families to essential activities.

Key COVID-19 Data

Despite the increase in most metrics, North Carolina’s metrics remain good compared to the majority of states. It moved from 34th to 36th among the 50 states for the number of cases on a per capita basis. It declined from 33nd for deaths from the virus to 35rd. It remained the 30th highest rate of tests.

The number of new cases increased from 20,301 last week to 21,432 during the seven days ending today. The weekly growth was 6%, the first week with growth less than 10% in a month. The number of deaths declined from 200 to 176 for this seven-day period, a decrease of 12%.

The 14-day moving average has been used to determine whether our state should adjust its overall guidance. All metrics continue to increase which underscores the concern over the impact of the virus.

Key metrics were mixed in Wake County. New cases increased from 1,594 last week to 1,777 this week; there were only six reported new deaths in the county during the last week.

The number of cases in our Zip Code 27587 rose from 110 in the preceding seven -day period to 160 in the last week. Two additional deaths were reported in the last seven days.

Zip Code 27571 (Rolesville) reported 15 new cases this past week, up from 11 the previous week.  Zip 27596 (Youngsville) rose by 49 cases, down from 25 cases reported for the previous week.  Zip 27571 has reported no deaths; Zip 27596 continues to report a single fatality.

Federal Guidelines

The federal Coronavirus Task Force has developed stoplight charts for the states on three metrics which have not been officially published but the data is available.  North Carolina is currently rated “red” for the number of new cases since the week of September 30.  However, the number of deaths is no longer above the guideline.   Both Wake County and Zip 27587 rated red for the number of new cases this week.  Areas exceeding the federal guidelines are shown red.

Forty-seven states and the District of Columbia are now in the red zone for the number of new cases. North Carolina and our zip code reported deaths above the federal guideline for the last seven days.

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