George Shaw
Summary
The COVID-19 situation in our state continued to improve steadily with double digit reductions in the number of new cases and hospitalizations across North Carolina. The best news of the week was a 30% reduction in the number of deaths across the Tar Heel State.
Most of the key metrics at the state level remain well above the lows for 2021 set in the early summer. And the weekly total of vaccinations across North Carolina increased for the first time since late August.
The news in Wake County also continues to generally improve. Yet, the most recent levels remain significantly above figures recorded from late June to early July when the Delta variant began to impact our area.
This welcome decline in deaths is forecast to reverse itself in early December although the rate of increase is expected to be modest. Finally, the forecast through the end of February 2022 continues to improve with fewer deaths expected than previously forecast.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s ratings remain better than most states for the proportionate number of deaths but are now close to the national average for other key metrics. It has the 21st lowest number of cases per capita, an improvement from 23rd last week. It also remained the 14th lowest for deaths. The Tar Heel state also had the 27th highest rate of tests, up from 28th last week.
The number of tests declined 9% in the last seven days, compared to a 8% reduction the prior week. The 245,000 tests during the week ending today were the lowest level in 14 weeks but were 157% higher than the 2021 low of the seven days ending July 7.
New cases declined 5% in the last week; they were reduced 14% the prior week. The 12,200 new cases during the last seven days were the lowest level since the week of July 21. Yet, this week’s figures remain six times higher than the 2021 weekly low set in late June.
Hospitalizations decreased by 7% during the last week to 1095, the lowest level since July 27, 2021. They were, however, 2.9 times higher than the 2021 low of 374 set on July 3.
Deaths were down 30% to 180, the lowest level since the week of August 11. However, this is five times higher than the 33 deaths during the week of June 30, the lowest total for this year.
Wake County, Wake Forest, Rolesville and Youngsville
New cases declined 13% in Wake County and 9% in zip code 27587 during the last seven days. Newly reported cases rose slightly in 27571 and by nine in 27596. Wake County’s number of new cases was roughly nine times higher than the 2021 low count set in late June. 27587’s figure was approximately 18 times this year’s high from just before the 4th of July weekend.
Wake County had five deaths in the last week, down from eight the previous week including the 62nd recorded death in Zip 27587 on November 5.
The percentages of vaccinations edged up slightly in the last week. 70% of the population in Wake County has received one shot; 67% have completed their vaccinations. These percentages are higher than the corresponding ones for the entire state. 60% of Tar Heels have received a single shot; 56% have completed the requirement. Weekly vaccinations in North Carolina rose by 16% during the last seven days, the first weekly increase since late August.
Hospitalizations, Outbreaks and Forecast
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The number of new hospitalizations was flat in the last week in the Capital Region, an area of five counties centered on Wake. 29% of hospitalized patients in the Tar Heel State and the Capital Region were in Intensive Care Units.
The North Carolina forecast for the virus from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) was updated on November 3. The total number of deaths in our state is currently 18,371. IMHE expects this number to increase to 20,257 by the end of February. Deaths are forecasted to decline through December 2, a slip of a day during the last two weeks. It is forecast to slowly rise again to a level of 37 daily by March 1. This is somewhat higher than the average of 27 deaths during the last week.
New Feature
This week introduces an additional feature which I am calling the “misery index.” Every state had to make a difficult tradeoff between strict measures to combat the virus and impact on the economy over the last 18 months.
I found a way to combine the relative position of each state against the national average for both virus deaths and unemployment. The states with the best track records generally had both lower rates of virus mortality and low unemployment.
North Carolina has the 12th best rating among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The states that have done better than the Tar Heel State are located in several groupings – the northern tier of New England (Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont); Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah); Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska) as well as Virginia.
The 12 states with the worst rating compared to the national average generally are directly south of the best performers. They group as follows: northeast (Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania); southwest (California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico); delta (Mississippi, Louisiana); and Illinois.
A full article will appear in two weeks as the monthly update for unemployment by state will be released the prior Friday.
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